Rupee Meets Tactical Target, Remains At Risk Long-Term

In US Dollar/Rupee our short-term upside objective was 77.50 if and only if prices were able to hold above their October 2018 highs of 74.50. This week our target has been hit as momentum diverges negatively, which would suggest a near-term high and some backing and filling.

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Despite our tactical outlook for a pause in this trend, our long-term target remains up near 80 based on the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension of the 2009-2011 decline. As long as prices are above their 2018 highs of 74.50 on a weekly closing basis then the structural uptrend remains intact and weakness should be bought.

Yen/Rupee, on the other hand, quickly failed at resistance after meeting our upside objective at the  2012 highs of 0.72. For now, this pair remains rangebound between 0.67 and 0.72 so we're treating it as such.

Weakness towards the bottom can be bought and strength towards the top can be sold until a weekly close above 0.72 occurs. That would confirm the long-term breakout we're looking for based on the underlying trend and momentum characteristics.

The Euro/Rupee and British Pound/Rupee pairs remain a hot mess at best, whipping around in a wide range which we discussed in our early March posts. A neutral approach remains best as we wait for a clear trend to form.

Despite the lack of clarity in those two pairs, the message remains clear for US Dollar/Rupee and Yen/Rupee. Their structural trends remain higher and further strength should be expected over the intermediate/long-term despite their near-term consolidation.

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Allstarcharts Team