It's A Good Time To Think

JC Parets
December 29, 2019

There seems to be more data available than ever as we head into the end of this decade. It's up to us to decide how we use it, or ignore it in many cases.

I have my process and everyone else has theirs. But one thing that is a common denominator among all of us is this current period of resetting before we begin a new year.

This week I asked Phil if this calendar thing was something we made up as humans or if this is something real that we should embrace. This was his response:

Rebirth is a universal theme. Dates are milestones adding rhythmic structure. Not "required" but common across cultures and eras."

I'm glad he said that because I enjoy this time of the year. I like thinking about the things we're thinking about.

We'll have a lot more charts and trade ideas this week, of course, as we approach our Monthly Conference Call Thursday (email me if you have not registered).

But for now, I have a question. No one ever talks about 1974 being the start of the bull market, which was the low of that period. You tell me it was 1982, once they finally broke out. Which makes perfect sense. But then why do so many people today call 2009 the start of this bull market? Think about the implications of a 2013 or 2016 or even 2018 start....

What am I missing here? I think the thesis that 2009 was the start of the bull market lacks consistency.

Here's the best part of this. There is no right or wrong answer. This cycle doesn't have to look anything like that one. And the market doesn't care how we label these periods. But we know these things.

The point of this exercise is to think about what the market implications are if 2009 wasn't the beginning. For me, this allows for the possibility that we are much closer to the early innings of this ballgame than we are to the later innings.

That period in the S&P500 throughout the 60s and 70s reminds me a lot of EuroStoxx 600 right now, the broadest measure of European Stocks. We can even argue it looks like London FTSE100 or several other important indexes that have churned sideways for 13-20yrs, like US Financials.

It's something interesting I'm thinking about.

What's on your mind these days?

JC

 

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