[Premium] November Monthly Chart Trends

First we'll start with the Nifty 100, which consolidated in a tight range within last month's candle. This range-bound action continues to suggest indecision between buyers and sellers.

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The Nifty Free-Float Midcap 100 saw a long lower shadow last month as buyers stepped in at support, however, in November we saw very little upside follow-through which diminishes the significance of October's reversal pattern.

The same can be said for the Nifty Free-Float Smallcap 100. The upside follow-through is not impressive.

When you combine all the market-cap segments into the Nifty 500, you see a market consolidating within the previous month's range. The break of this range will likely determine if the next major move is higher or lower.

One sector we've been watching for clues about the market's direction is the Financial Services Index. The largest component of that index is Housing Development Finance Co., which closed back toward the top of its year-to-date range. A breakout and continuation of its long-term uptrend would be a bullish development for the sector and the market as a whole.

ICICI Bank attempted a breakout this month, but failed to close higher. Again, this is an important stock in an important sector. Bulls do not want to see this breakout attempt fail.

The Commodities Index tried to rally, but was rejected and closed back near the lows of the month. As long as it's below 3,610, the bias remains to the downside.

The decline of this sector is being led by significant breakdowns in components like NTPC Ltd., which resolved a multi-year range to the downside, targeting its 2014-2015 lows.

The long lower tails in the Nifty IT Index are constructive, but don't present a reason to be long again until it's back above 15,090. The return of relative strength to this market leader would be another positive for the market.

The largest component of the Fast Moving Consumer Goods Index, Hindustan Unilever, continues to consolidate gains and set up for another move to the upside.

Energy, outside of its largest component Reliance Industries, continues to be a nightmare. Oil and Natural Gas Corp. is resolving a multi-year range to the downside, targeting the 2009 lows.

Other components which have already broken support, like Power Grid Corporation, continue to melt lower toward their next downside target.

Meanwhile the Nifty Infrastructure Index has been trying to find its footing, and a breakout from its largest component, Larsen & Tourbo, would go a long way in helping the sector get out of its sideways/downward trend.

On the other hand, the Nifty Metal Index continues to trend lower after breaking support last month. Some of our best short setups continue to come from this area of the market.

The Nifty Realty Index saw some upside follow-through in November, signaling a short-term bottom may be in for a sector that's been weak on an absolute and relative basis all year.

In the Commodities space, Base Metals continue to struggle, with Nickel leading the group to the downside. It just broke a big support level and closed near the lows. None of this action would suggest being long.

Precious Metals aren't faring much better, with Silver closing at its lowest level since February 2016 and targeting the 2014 lows.

Crude Oil saw a ton of downside continuation after meeting our upside objective and reversing off the highs last month. This is why we respect price targets and get out of the way when trends change.

Natural Gas made new monthly closing highs. Some consolidation would be healthy after a massive move over the last few months, but as long as prices are above 302.50, the bias remains to the upside.

Last month we discussed the long upper shadows in the four currencies we track against the Rupee. In November we saw downside continuation in all of them, with only USD/INR managing to hold above support. Only time will tell if this pairs digest this action through time or through further downside price action.

It was a quiet November, but we'd say the biggest changes have been in the Commodities and Currencies part of our universe. There aren't many opportunities on the long side of those spaces anymore, which is certainly different than what we saw earlier in the year.

In terms of stocks, the improvement in the Financial Services, IT, and FMCG indexes is a positive, but we need to see decisive breakouts in those areas before the broader market can make new highs.

Thanks for reading and please let us know if you have any questions.

Allstarcharts Team