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CNBC Talking Numbers With Mandy Drury

October 28, 2013

Last Friday I sat down with Mandy Drury to discuss stocks and bonds. In the first video, I brought up the chart that worries me the most in the stock market. Many of you have seen it before, but it shows the list of stocks in uptrends getting shorter with each new high in the S&P500. To me, that's unsustainable.

Click on Video to watch:  10-28-13 cnbc talking numbers

In this segment I prefer bonds over stocks:

So, how much longer can stocks and bonds rise together?

Not for long, says JC Parets, founder and president of Eagle Bay Capital and co-chair of the New York Chapter of the Market Technicians Association. Parets says that while stocks have been at record highs, they've still traded within a range since May.

10-28-13 cnbc talking numbers 2

He believes bonds will ultimately move up, leaving stocks behind. Parets notes that sentiment is fairly negative for bonds as measured by data from Consensus, Inc. As of late, bond bulls are about 27% of the market (see chart below).

10-28-13 cnbc bonds consensus

"Sentiment is at ridiculously low levels," says Parets. "We haven’t seen this much hatred for Treasury bonds since early 2011, just before a 50% rally in the $TLT [iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF]."

Parets also sees bond price momentum as a further boost. "As Treasury bonds were making 52-week lows into August, momentum was already turning higher," says Parets. "This is what we call a 'bullish divergence'. And, we've been rallying now for months. Higher lows and higher highs is the definition of an uptrend."

 

Source:

CNBC Talking Numbers

Tags: $SPY $DJIA $IWM $TLT $TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F

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