Pessimism Among Individual Investors Hits 9-Month High

JC Parets
May 19, 2011

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months:

 

From Bespoke:

"While business TV anchors are busy watching the LinkedIn ($LNKD) IPO and wondering whether or not we are in the early stages of another bubble, individual investors are heading for the hills.  In the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment dropped below 30% (26.7%) for the first time since August 2010 when the QE2 rally began.  Even though the S&P 500 remains near its highs of the bull market, nearly all the bullish sentiment that was built up during the rally has now been given back.  People like to say that the individual investor is always the last to get in and the first to get out.  This time at least, the individual is making a quick exit.  Will they be too early?"

This week’s sentiment survey results:

  • Bullish: 26.7%, down 4.1 percentage points
  • Neutral: 32.0%, down 1.7 percentage points
  • Bearish: 41.3%, up 5.8 percentage points

Historical averages:

  • Bullish: 39%
  • Neutral: 31%
  • Bearish: 30%

Individual Investors are getting scared. The S&P500 is 2% off it's 52-week highs, the Nasdaq100 is 2% off it's highs, and the Dow Industrials are about 1.7% off last month's highs. Is this time different? Do individual investors see something that the rest of the market doesn't? I Doubt it.

 

Sources:

Sentiment Survey (AAII)

Where Have All the Bulls Gone? (Bespoke)

AAII Pessimism at 9-Month High (PragCap)

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