Post-Election Years Are Historically The Worst
- Posted by JC Parets
- on November 14th, 2012
When we talk about the Presidential Cycle, it’s the first of the four years that worries us the most. If you look at the data going back to the year 1833, the post-election year is historically the worst, by far. I grabbed this chart from Jeff Hirsch’s excellent book, The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles (see my review). It’s hard not to notice the dramatic difference between the last 2 years of the cycle, and the underperformance of the first two.
This week, Jeff took these numbers to a whole new level by analyzing what happens when the incumbent party wins an election. Furthermore, he takes a look at the consequences of a sitting Democrat winning the race:
If history is telling us anything here, it’s probably to be careful entering 2013. But we need to look at this stuff within the context of the many inputs that we incorporate into our technical analysis. We use a top/down approach and analyze all asset classes and all countries around the world (see here). But seasonal trends, specifically in US Equities, are something that we take very seriously. So stay tuned…
Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
J.C. Parets is the Founder & President of Eagle Bay Capital, LLC. He is a 10-year veteran and Market Technician who actively manages money incorporating Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance into his practice. JC’s work has been featured regularly on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, Business News Network, Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance among many other financial media outlets. More...
- About Those Consolidations in US Averages
- The Nifty 50 Hits All-time Highs, Now What?
- Thinking Out Loud In Mid-January
- Is Malaysia Where We Want To Be This Year?
- Wait For Your Pitch!
- ABC News: Home Builders Rally To Start 2015
- BNN Appearance: Crude Oil, Bonds and Homebuilders
- Will Real Estate Be The Big Winner In Q1?
- Bonds Continue To Outperform Stocks
- FOX Business: US Stocks & Crude Oil for 2015
Archive by Year