The Dow Jones Industrial Average has put in a short-term top right about now in each of the past three years. I’m not saying that we need to see a fourth in a row. In fact, it typically isn’t that easy. But I think it’s worth pointing out how on point the ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ strategy has been, at least for the short-term.
I don’t think this is anything to make portfolio altering decisions about, but it’s definitely fascinating to see the seasonality take effect every year.
Going forward I think it’s important to look at price to make risk management decisions. But I don’t think there’s any harm in keeping the seasonality factors in the back of our minds. Regardless of what transpires over the next several weeks/months, this pattern is definitely worth pointing out.
Remember, they’ve corrected each year right around this time. But these corrections have just been buying opportunities within this ongoing cycliclal (perhaps secular) bull market. And I don’t see evidence of that bigger picture thesis changing just yet.
Tags: $DJIA $DIA