Today's number is... 28.5

Market sentiment is shifting as the average bears reached 28.5 last week, the highest reading since November 2023.

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... 19

My RORO Risk Range Summary, which includes 19 Risk-On versus Risk-Off ratios, has shifted to slightly favor risk-off assets.

Here is the chart:

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Let's first break down what the chart shows:

Today's number is... 0.64%

The First Five Days indicator for 2025 showed a positive return of 0.64%. 

Here’s the table:

Here’s a bonus table highlighting all the positive years:

Today's number is... 1.60%

The S&P 500 under the hood is bifurcated!

The average stock in the S&P 500 is only 1.60% above its 200-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... 100%

Our US Dollar Long Term Percent Bullish breadth reading just reached 100%.

Here’s the chart:

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Let's break down what it shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the US Dollar index.

Today's number is... 4

The S&P 500 index is holding up well as it is only 1.89% below its all-time high; however, when we take a closer look at the individual stocks, we can see that they have begun to dip below 4 key timeframe highs that we have identified as important.

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... Q1

After two weeks of enjoying the Australian summer at the beach house, I've returned to my desk! I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas and celebrated the start of the new year with family and friends!

Let's start the year off with some cycle data… 

Stocks historically do not perform well in the first quarter of a post-election year.

Here’s the chart:

Today's number is... 2

We only have two out of nine indicators flashing green on my bull market behavior checklist.

Here is the table:

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Today's number is... 97%

Forewarning: This note will take two minutes to read as a lot has happened since yesterday's move lower:

- The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its 10th consecutive down day.

- The S&P 500 has experienced 13 straight days with more decliners than advancers.

- The S&P 500 saw a spike in 1-month new lows to 60%, the highest level since March 2023.

- The percentage of S&P 500 stocks in oversold conditions increased to 29.5%, reaching its highest level since October 2023.

- The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average dropped to 18.3%, the lowest level since November 2023.

However, one data point that caught my attention was that over 97% of stocks in the S&P 1500 declined in price yesterday!

Here is the table:

Today's number is... 37.3 > 34.3

More S&P 500 stocks are in downtrends than uptrends.

37.3% are in downtrends… and 34.3% are in uptrends.

Has the environment switched? Maybe.

Here is the chart:

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Let's first break down what the chart shows:

Today's number is... 3

The Hindenburg Omen has triggered for the 3rd time over the past 110 trading days.

The Hindenburg Omen is designed to identify potential turning points in the stock market, raising concerns about a possible downturn.

Is this something we should be concerned about? Or not?

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... 16

We’re now in the homestretch of 2024, and the 16th of December is when seasonality becomes a tailwind for stocks for the remainder of the month.

Here’s the chart:

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Let's break down what the chart shows: