Today's number is... 5

The S&P 500 has experienced five consecutive days of moves exceeding +1% or -1%.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the middle panel indicates consecutive days when the S&P 500 experienced a daily movement of +1% or -1%.
• The red line in the bottom panel is the S&P 500’s 52-week drawdown.
• The vertical gray lines indicate consecutive days when the S&P 500 experienced a daily movement of +1% or -1% is greater than 5.

The Takeaway: We have experienced five consecutive days of 1% movements, either up or down, in the S&P 500. This marks the longest period of market volatility since August of last year. 

During this current period of volatility, we have seen a consistent trend of more stocks reaching new lows than new highs, alongside a significant rise in bearish market sentiment.

As shown in the chart, these volatile...

Today's number is... 10%

Over 10% of stocks on the NYSE+NASDAQ are making new lows.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of NYSE+NASDAQ 52-week new highs minus new lows.

The Takeaway: We have a saying here at All Star Charts… The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, it's simple math… and you know what… The number of stocks making new lows is higher than the number of stocks making new highs.

Yesterday, among the 7,422 stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ, 997 made new 52-week lows, while only 101 achieved new 52-week highs.

That's 11.8% relative to new highs and over 13% new lows on an absolute basis.

...

Today's number is... 2021

My Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio has sharply declined recently and returned to levels when the ratio peaked and fell into a consolidation period back in 2021.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio.
  • The Risk-On components consist of Copper (HG1), High Yield Bonds (JNK), Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD), Semiconductors (SOXX/SPY) & High Beta (SPHB/SPY).
  • The Risk-Off components consist of Gold (GC1), US Treasury Bonds (TLT), Yen (JPYUSD), Utilities (XLU/SPY) & Staples (XLP/SPY).

The Takeaway: Investors are experiencing fear and pessimism, as bearish sentiment dominates the surveys. The US market is beginning to mirror this mood, showing a preference for a Risk-Off environment. This is reflected in my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio, which has returned to a key level of importance where we saw NYSE breadth reach its peak in 2021.

Will this resistance level, which has turned into support, continue to act as support, or will this ratio...

Today's number is... 2

We are now two months into 2025, and we are closely following the same path of the average post election cycle. What's next?

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the average return in post election years since 1950 for the S&P 500.
• The red line represents the S&P 500 in 2025.

The Takeaway: In the first two months of the year, the S&P 500 has followed its typical pattern for the post-election cycle.

Up in January.

Down in February.

If stocks continue to follow this seasonal trend, we may have seen the bottom for the market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see stocks rip higher into the end of the year, given that the average post election cycle is now transitioning into a tailwind for stocks.

However, if we start to see weakness during what is typically a strong seasonal period for stocks, that would pique my interest much more. For now, stocks are simply following their usual seasonal tendencies. 

What are your...

Today's number is... 20%

The percentage of stocks down 20% or more are expanding across all S&P market caps.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks (Large Cap) that have declined by 20% or more.
• The red line indicates the percentage of S&P 400 stocks (Mid Cap) that have fallen by 20% or more.
• The gray line shows the percentage of S&P 600 stocks (Small Cap) that have experienced a decline of 20% or more.

The Takeaway: A decline of 20% or more is typically considered the threshold for defining a "bear market" While this method isn't perfect, it's a nice round number that often brings the price of the stock down to levels that you never thought you would see again.

When we look beneath the surface using a 20% or more decline as our criteria, we can see that these breadth readings are expanding across all market caps. 

More than half of the S&P 600...

Today's number is... -0.50

My Risk-On/Risk-Off indicator has declined sharply and is now at -0.50, firmly re-entering Risk-Off territory.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel is our custom indicator, which comprises 20 Intermarket ratios that pair various risk-on and risk-off assets.
  • Green is a bullish environment, and red is a bearish environment.

The Takeaway: This indicator has been fluctuating between Risk-On and Risk-Off modes for most of the year. However, over the past week, it has sharply declined and moved well and truly back into Risk-Off territory. This downward pressure indicates a change in the market environment, suggesting that the focus has shifted from opportunity to risk.

Moving forward, I will be monitoring to see if this recent weakness sticks around to determine if we experience further downside...

Today's number is... 3

The relative ratio of the Consumer Staples versus the S&P 500 has reached a new three-month high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of S&P 500 Consumer Staples versus S&P 500 Index.
• The green and red lines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the ratio above. When the line is green it indicates that the ratio is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: When I’m looking for evidence that market participants are taking defensive positions, the ratio of Consumer Staples to the S&P 500 offers valuable insight.

And right now, I am seeing some of that defensive rotation.

The landscape for one of my favorite risk-on/risk-off ratios has changed considerably. Let me break it down! 

- It has broken out of a short-term bearish-to-...

Today's number is... 55%

Only 55% of S&P 500 stocks are in strong uptrends.  

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with a 50-day moving average greater than its 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: In a healthy bull market, the 50-day and 200-day averages typically move in the same direction, with the 50-day average positioned above the 200-day average. 

Looking beneath the surface, only 55% of S&P 500 stocks show strong upward trends. The trend of this breadth indicator has been declining throughout this year and has now fallen back to levels seen at the beginning of 2024. This suggests that there is an underlying weakness in the market, which could pose further downside price action at an index level if the bulls do not address this issue.

Small cracks can also be seen at the index level. Although the S&P 500'...

Today's number is... 1

Last week, the bears demonstrated that they are still active, with one-month lows for the S&P 500, 400, and 600 started to expand.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the second panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making one-month lows.
• The red line in the third panel shows the percentage of S&P 400 stocks making one-month lows.
• The gray line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 600 stocks making one-month lows.

The Takeaway: On Friday, all major indices fell by over 1.5%. This was a show of force from the bears. With this widespread weakness, we observed one-month new lows rising across all market capitalizations.

While the overall evidence still suggests a bullish trend, Friday marked a possible turning point...

Today's number is... 496

The S&P 500 Technology Sector has been in an uptrend for the past 496 trading days.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The dark blue line in the top panel represents the S&P 500 Technology Sector price. The light blue line represents the 50-day moving average, while the red line shows the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 Technology Sector.
• The black bars in the bottom panel indicate days when the 50-day average is greater than the 200-day average.

The Takeaway: There are many ways to define an uptrend. One very simple yet effective method is to check whether its 50-day moving average is above its 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 Technology Sector's trend has been higher for the past 496 trading days. This current uptrend is actually the fourth longest we have seen in the Sector over the past three decades. 

Despite some underperformance from the sector more recently, the S&P 500 Technology Sector...

Today's number is... 15

My custom Equal Weight Bellwether Stock Index, comprising 15 components, has reached year-to-date highs.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what this table shows:

• The blue line is our custom Equal Weight Bellwether Stock Index price, and the stocks within the index are Alcoa, Apple, AMD, Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Walt Disney, FedEx, General Electric, General Motors, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, McDonald's, Walmart and Exxon Mobil. 

The Takeaway: Bellwether stocks are large, well-established, and widely followed companies. These 15 stocks act as an excellent barometer for the stock market as a whole, and in healthy bull markets, bellwether stocks usually move upwards, and that’s exactly what's been happening for the past 2.5 years.

These 15 stocks give us valuable insights into whether overall market conditions are shifting. Currently, this index continues to rise steadily and has been consolidating in a constructive manner. Until we observe a change in this pattern, we should maintain...

Today's number is... 587

With the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high yesterday, this current bull market has persisted for the past 587 trading days.

How much longer can this run continue? 

Here is the table:

Let's break down what this table shows:

• The green box represents all of the bull markets dating back to 1950. A bull market is defined as a rally of 20% or more that follows a drop of 20% or more.
• The red box represents all of the bear markets since 1950. A bear market is defined as a drop of 20% or more that follows a rally of 20% or more.

The Takeaway: There is nothing more bullish than hitting all-time highs.

Yesterday's all-time high marks the second all-time high for the S&P 500 index in 2025. Over the last 587 trading days, this bull market has delivered a remarkable return of 71.4%. However, it’s important to note that the average bull market lasts around 1,138 trading days and typically achieves a return of 153%. Consequently, this bull market, while strong, is still below the...