Recently, I've flipped to a higher conviction bullish view. I'm of the belief this last leg lower purged a great deal of longs from the futures market, of which provides us fertile grounds to build a new trend.
In the short-term, I still think the crypto market will be messier for longer even as Bitcoin rallies to new highs.
Ethereum and the S&P 500 are both running up to a logical level of resistance.
The primary theme in crypto is that we have just undergone a significant rinse in bullish positioning. This is positive to see.
Although, the market does tend to take some time to shape up following this deleveraging events. We want to play crypto patiently and keeping our trading exposure light in the short-term by focusing on any relative leadership until some shape has been put in.
Equity market strength gives me further conviction to anticipate the resolution will be higher once this shaping period has completed, hence why I have increased our intermediate term bias to bullish while keeping our short-term bias at neutral.
I think the evidence points to a low of sizeable magnitude having been put in, but now the expectation is sideways price action as we enter into a shaping period.
Last week saw an incredible amount of investor panic.
Often, you want to take the other side of this emotion. But before we do this with any conviction, we need to see market trends shape up in more bullish fashion.
We entered Bitcoin long on bear's inability to hold the breakdown below 56,000 and Ethereum's retest of 2,000. But apart from this, I'm still maintaining a neutral short and intermediate term directional bias in the crypto markets. I would like to see prices shape up more definitively, which can take some time following corrections such as these.
Crypto volatility has surged once again, and it's understandable if you're feeling stressed from this recent move.
If you’re holding crypto assets, you might be experiencing a significant drawdown. This volatility is a natural part of the investment journey in this asset class. It's to be expected you'll weather these drawdowns in crypto.
During turbulent times like these, it’s crucial to recognize that heightened emotions can cloud judgment. While it’s perfectly normal to feel stressed during a downturn, it’s important to be aware of how these emotions can impact your decision-making.
Amidst the noise and speculation, our goal today is to provide clarity.
In this report, we’ll contextualize the recent sell-off with historical data and outline a data-driven strategy to navigate the current landscape. By focusing on objective analysis, we aim to help you make informed decisions and maintain a steady course guided by data, not emotion.
Investors are preparing themselves for the launch of a second wave of crypto ETFs. With Ethereum up over 25% in recent weeks, it's clear the market has positive expectations for these new products.
Last week I maintained my bullish directional biases even in the face of another down leg in crypto markets. Today, we're monitoring an increasing number of failed breakdowns, meaning that bulls are once again asserting control of the tape.
Crypto markets have continued their sell-off into last week, with Bitcoin losing the critical 60,000 support level and the total crypto market-cap briefly dipping below $2T for the first time since February.
I've been maintaining a neutral short-term bias for the last five weeks, which has helped us keep away from much of the precarious action over this period. But I'm seeing mounting signs that point to a tradable low being carved, and as such, I'm changing our short-term bias from neutral to bullish.
Bitcoin is finding support at a key level alongside many altcoins. Further, this is within the context of a wider reset in a longer-term bull market.
Heading into last week we were mindful of the compression in volatility which meant an increased likelihood for larger price swings. Further, we were being patient given a number of our data sets were pointing to mixed signs.
We've seen selling continue, particularly ramping up this morning.
I'm maintaining my neutral short-term bias. My data sets are mixed, with some indicators pointing in bullish territory while others skew bearish.
Volatility has contracted to extreme levels. Given volatility's mean-reverting nature, we're likely going to experience an expansion in volatility in the short-term.
I'm being patient and letting the weight of the evidence tip me to a more bullish stance.
Last week saw short-term weakness manifest in crypto markets. For the time being, I still have a neutral short-term bias in the context of a longer-term bullish outlook.