From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Readers often ask how long it will take for an open trade to reach our target. 

I wish I knew. 

Only the market can answer that question, as Gold did last Friday…

Six weeks!

It was only a matter of weeks — not months, not quarters — before gold futures hit our first objective:

What a face-ripper!

If this isn’t a clear indication of a new secular bull run for precious metals, what else do you need to see?

Luckily for anyone thinking about adding to positions or locking in profits, the extension level at approximately 2,450 marks a logical area for the rally to take a breather.

It doesn’t mean it will. Nevertheless, it’s still a good idea to take some profits here. 

Once buyers drive gold above 2,465, we can add to existing long positions (or open new ones) with a rough target of 3,300.

Meanwhile, Platinum and Palladium are looking juicy…

These low-profile precious metals offer excellent opportunities as gold digests its gains.

I highlighted Platinum last week as it challenges a critical breakout level. And our...

Nobody is paying attention to platinum.

It’s easy to overlook while gold shines and silver rips. But during the last commodity supercycle, platinum traded at a premium to the famous shiny yellow rock (and still does regarding retail jewelry).

Platinum was a powerhouse!

New all-time highs have a funny way of shifting perspectives.

Not too long ago, many considered gold a “dumpster fire,” a “hot mess,” or an “opportunity cost.”

All were fair assessments. 

Everything changed last month when gold rocketed to its highest recorded level.

Yet, for some reason, investors weren’t buying into its strength.

But a 12% gain over the past five weeks has quickly turned reluctant investors into ravenous speculators.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

People are asking me if gold’s breakout is the real deal.

All I can do is smile, state my bullish outlook, and draw a line in the sand.

Of course, I can’t resist adding an obnoxious upside target or two (the higher, the better).

Hopefully, it sounds simple. That’s the goal! It never pays to overcomplicate price action…. 

If you’re still wondering whether precious metals are a viable investment despite gold’s new all-time highs, let’s identify the underlying trend…

The gold rally off the 2018 lows led to a multi-year consolidation that is now resolving higher — uptrend intact. 

Plus, what an impressive stick from gold last month:

Richard Wycoff would call last month’s candlestick a wide-bodied bar — an indication of willing buyers. It’s a significant sign of strength.

Gold futures rose 8.94%, closing near the March highs and solidifying its breakout.

If gold’s bullish candlestick, underlying uptrend, and new all-time highs fail to squash your lingering doubts, check out the gold miners…

The Gold Miners ETF $GDX also enjoyed quite the bid last month,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Pop the champagne!

Gold reached new all-time highs. 

Now, whether we consider the shiny yellow rock a viable investment is another story.

You know I’m bullish…  

Yet I can’t overlook silver’s lack of participation.

I think of silver as gold’s rambunctious cousin — lots of fun until someone gets hurt — and someone always gets hurt!

Perhaps trading silver isn’t your cup of tea. I don’t blame you.

But silver rallies possess an infectious exuberance. Its rowdy antics and monstrous daily ranges magnetize investors as they attempt to skirt silver’s flame without burning to a crisp. 

Unfortunately, silver isn’t bringing the heat. It has yet to break out, and the silver-to-gold ratio is trending lower.

A similar scenario unfolded last spring when gold ran up against its former all-time highs:

The result: 10 more months of sideways chop.

Despite a likely pullback, gold futures and the Gold Shares ETF $GLD remain buys if they trade above last month’s breakout levels (2,100 and 193, respectively).

But gold will take the scenic route until...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are finally waking up to gold.

Friends and family are blowing up my phone (and this time, it’s not just about baby pics). They’ve noticed gold’s rally to new highs – and they want to know whether to buy physical gold or an ETF — bars or coins. 

But silver has yet to enter the conversation…

I get it. New all-time highs have a way of capturing the investor’s collective conscience. 

But while gold is printing new all-time highs, silver futures post a mere multi-month high. 

I’m no fan of the catch-up trade, as I always want to own the strongest name(s), but check out silver’s four-decade base:

What a monster!

Silver reached its peak in early 1980 at roughly 41.50. The bulls didn’t see that level again until the spring of 2011 when price ran just shy of 50.

Spring is ahead today, and the soft, shiny metal is trading at approximately 25. That means it would have to double before hitting a new all-time high. 

I’m not waiting around for silver to complete this half-century base.

Here’s how I want to play it…

A significant...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is silencing all the haters – even me!

I’ll admit, I had my doubts. 

But I also carried an unnerving suspicion buyers would strike as soon as I dropped my guard…

Gold futures sliced through our breakout level last week, closing at record highs:

Unbelievable… Or, better yet, undeniable.

Gold not only hit a new all-time high, it broke out with authority as it gained more than 4% last week. 

The path of least resistance points higher toward 2,500 (our initial objective). But the price of gold could go much higher.

Gold is embarking on a new secular bull run:

As it rips to new heights, it will take the entire metal and mining space along for the ride.

But we’re in the early innings of an uptrend that could last for years to come.

Instead of catching falling knives or taking cute catch-up trades, it’s best to simplify our strategy and buy the strongest names. 

Gold mining stocks have suffered for years, and a handful of names were absolutely clobbered last month. A few gold miners are even offering up the mother-of-all mean...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

You can’t keep the gold bugs down.

They’re a hearty bunch full of true grit, choosing to focus on the silver lining while persevering through countless downturns.

Gold, on the other hand, has been an easy target…

Every time buyers have managed to drive the price back to the 2,089 level… 

Rejected! 

Sellers have stepped in, capping price while breaking the hearts of gold bugs everywhere. 

Or so I thought. It turns out you can’t break a gold bug’s heart. 

Try as they might, sellers are no match for gold bugs’ bullish conviction. 

Buyers rushed in, driving price higher following last month’s breakdown:

I’ll admit, I didn’t see this week’s retest and possible breakout coming.

The market simply wore me down. I guess I’m not what you might consider a true gold bug. 

You can call me weak if you like. But that won’t stop me from buying gold futures on a decisive daily close above 2,100 with a target of approximately 2,500.

And it shouldn’t stop you, either.

Gold mining stocks will also spring back to life if gold...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The market is punishing investors for owning gold mining stocks.

Sure, a handful of gold miners are holding above key levels.

Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN, Orla Mining $ORLA, and Harmony Gold $HMY belong to this elite group of outperformers.

But that’s about it.

I’m not giving these trades too much room. And I’m not piling into new long positions. Not yet! 

Here’s why…

Gold mining stocks continue to print fresh lows versus the broader market.

Check out the VanEck Gold Miners ETF $GDX relative to the S&P 500 ETF $SPY:

Since its inception in 2006, GDX has never traded at this much of a discount to the S&P 500. This is the exact opposite of what we would see if gold and other precious metals were in an uptrend.

The strongest trending assets outperform their alternatives. 

On the other hand, precious metals are exhibiting relative weakness – a clear sign of a severe downtrend.

Investors are more interested in buying NVIDIA Corp. $NVDA and Super Micro Computer $SMCI.

No one wants to own shares of companies that dig in the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold’s beginning to attract some attention.

Not because it was shooting higher but because it kept trading while most respectable markets closed in observance of Presidents Day.

US stocks, grains, and other god-fearing commodities did not trade. So investors needed something to talk about other than Bitcoin. 

But as gold stole the headlines, no one was talking about platinum.

I like that platinum isn’t attracting too many eyeballs right now.

Here’s why…

Platinum futures are carving out a potential multi-year reversal pattern.

A series of former highs (the 2021, 2022, and 2023 peaks) mark a critical area of overhead supply and our breakout level at approximately 1,140.

But no one seems to care – probably because price is trading well below a reasonable risk level. 

Precious metals – not just gold and silver – are a range-bound mess at best. Yet glimmers of hope lie within platinum’s sideways chop.

Momentum (14-week RSI) is oscillating within a bullish regime. Price is also holding above the 2022 and 2023 lows.

I understand if those data points...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m fed up with precious metals. 

I’m tired of all the failed breakouts and the sideways chop.

So, please, spare me the silver-surfer stories about undervalued silver or how it will outperform gold 16-to-1 during the next bull run. 

I’m tired of it – all of it!

But the diehard gold bugs continue to rally the troops – and maybe they’re on to something.

After all, gold is trading less than a hundred bucks from its all-time high. Is there still a chance for a clean breakout soon?

Let’s take a cold, hard look…

Check out gold’s four-year base:

I can’t lie: This is the type of base that gets me out of bed in the morning.

It’s a classic inverted head-and-shoulders with an abbreviated right shoulder. It oozes demand!

Plus, momentum is in a bullish regime. This thing looks ready to rip! 

But I’m over it.

Funny how that works. The markets are here to test us, causing maximum pain whenever possible.

So is the market just wearing me down?

Gold futures are coiling within a well-defined symmetrical triangle just below a...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

Check out the iShares Silver Trust ETF $SLV retesting a critical former support level at approximately 20.50:

Perhaps it’s not the cleanest level. 

Nevertheless, plenty of price memory exists at this shelf of former lows. If SLV undercuts those former lows, precious metals will fall under increased selling pressure.

Gold futures will break down below 2,000. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX will fade below 30. And the handful of breakouts we’ve witnessed over the past few months will fail.

Plus, the silver-to-gold ratio will likely post a fresh 52-week low:

It’s another breakdown gold bugs prefer to avoid.

Silver dropping relative to gold signals a low turnout as investors are being rewarded...