We want to be buying stocks. I don't think I can be any more clear about that.
You guys know me as the obnoxiously bullish guy the past couple of years in the midst of "unprecedented pessimism". I'm willing to admit that I have an unfair advantage that I just pay attention to price and purposely ignore everything else that most of you have to endure. This focus has allowed me to see clearly what is actually taking place instead of assuming that who I'm listening to or reading knows what's going on.
Today I want to show you guys one single chart that I think tells the story of what the hell is going on here. It is awfully difficult for me to be bearish of stocks if the most important sectors in America are not just making new highs, but also breaking out to new relative highs. These leading sectors aren't just doing well, they're outperforming the rest.
It's a bull market in stocks. The bond market is confirming that. Until we start to see evidence that suggests otherwise, we remain in the camp that this is a 'buy weakness' environment and not a time to be selling strength. To get 2018 going on a good note, Consumer Discretionary stocks broke out relative to the S&P500. This is one of the most important sectors in America and I believe it is still in a secular bull market.
Financials ripping to all-time highs is not something we see when stocks are in a downtrend. To the contrary, this is strong evidence of risk appetite for stocks. This seems to be something that is being underappreciated right now but I think is worth pointing to, again.
There are a lot of questions about the sustainability of the uptrend in stocks. Some might even say that stocks are "stretched" or have gone "too far too fast". But when you look at Financials, they're just getting going now. From many different perspectives, this sector has done nothing for a long time and is just now breaking out.
Long Precious Metals has been a big theme for us this year. I still think this is an area we need to be involved with and the weight-of-the-evidence is suggesting higher prices for the entire space.
Today I want to point out the recent breakout in Swiss Franc Futures. Historically there is a high positive correlation between this contract and the price of Gold. As we break out to new multi-year highs in Swissy, Gold looks likely to follow along:
I don't like how many oversold conditions have been hit in the major indexes and most sectors. I've tried my best to point out the stocks showing both relative strength and momentum. But there are an awful lot of charts I see where oversold conditions in momentum is a problem. So the question becomes, is a retest of the lows necessary for stocks to continue higher?
The market is never going to give us what we want. We have to take what the market gives us. Play the hand we're given, not the hand we wish we had. What worked in one market environment is not going to work in another. That's why all those filters fail so frequently, because you're trying to take something from the market instead of taking what it is giving us.
This week, a spike in volatility caused forced selling in stock index vehicles that trickled down to ETFs and individual stocks. We did not see any stress, however, in credit markets, currencies or any of the commodities like Crude Oil or Gold. This is further evidence that we want to continue be buyers of weakness, like we have been throughout all of last year and most of 2016. There will be periods where we want to be sellers of strength, but I don't believe that is the correct approach today.
If you've been following along, I try and go out of my way to discuss risk management techniques, tools and signals when the market gives them to us. Whenever I lay out a thesis, I like to talk about what the market should look like in the case that we are correct, while at the same time outlining what the environment would look like if we are wrong. The idea is to picture both scenarios and as the data comes in, try to identify which outcome we're in as quickly as possible.
Based on what we saw in some of the volatility related products this week, it's clear someone got squeezed, or a bunch of someones. There was big money leaning in the other direction clearly. We've seen this sort of market behavior regularly - last April/May, then again in August. This was more extreme and most likely not the last time it happens. This is becoming normal. These leveraged products are a real risk when they all get squeezed simultaneously, there are forced liquidations. We saw elevated levels of volatility throughout the 90s and stocks kept rallying for years. So we can have volatility and rising...
It's not a secret that Emerging Markets were the big loser for a long time. Since peaking during the 2010-2011 time period, the underformance of anything EM, Mining and Natural Resources has been clear to all of us. Gold was a terrible investment, mining stocks, stocks in mining countries and others in that area had been the worst place to put your money for many years. Although still not in a full fledged parabolic rise, we've seen what appears like a healthy completion of a massive base.
To me, this is suggesting that the outperformance we've been seeing out of Emerging Markets is just getting started. The initial burst from early 2016 was more of a beta trade. This is when stocks as an asset class bottomed and the worst of the worst, emerging markets in this case, outperformed because of their higher volatility nature and the simple fact that, the harder the pounce, the more violent the bounce. We've gone nowhere the past 15 months since that initial thrust of the lows. Until now.
It's amazing how many people in this world completely ignore monthly charts. I never understood it. It's an exercise that only needs to be done once a month. It's not like eating healthy or working out that you have to do it consistently for it to work. This is 30 minutes per month! 30 minutes! 12 times a year. That's 6 hours of work that will be the most important and productive 6 hours of the entire year. Even if you have a short-term time horizon, all of these shorter-term trends come within the context of a much larger structural picture.
We're now in February so, of course, we want to talk about what happened in January. I'll have my friend Jeff Hirsch from Stock Traders Almanac on the podcast this week talking about the seasonal data that is so critical this time of year. But as far as price itself is concerned, we want to rip through all of the monthly charts like we do at the end of every month. I find it really helpful to not just look through the major U.S. and Global Indexes, but also individual sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies and intermarket relationships. We don't have to look through...
This weekend was our second annual Chart Summit. I still can't believe all the amazing feedback that continues to come in after this event. Thank you all from the bottom of my heart, both the presenters and the audience members. I didn't think we could make something even better than the original, but I think based on the responses, we may have actually pulled it off. Wow!
Our video production folks are hard at work putting all the videos together, but I've picked out the ones I did so I can share with all of you as soon as possible. The rest will be out this week.
On Monday, I shared the video of the first presentation I gave which was about my process. You can watch that here. In this next video, we take all of those tools and techniques I explained in Video 1 and apply them to the current market environment. Here you will see me walk through the top/down approach using...
It's hard to ignore a sector that is breaking out to new highs, especially when it's something that it hasn't done in a long time. Biotechnology has been a laggard for years. If we've wanted to be in healthcare, it certainly has not been in Biotech or Pharma, it's been Medical Equipment stocks. But it's 2018 and times are changing.
Today we're looking at breakouts in both the Equally-weighted Biotechnology Fund $XBI and the Cap-weighted Biotechnology Fund $IBB. Because of the very different composition of the two sector funds, we want to make sure to always watch the behavior of both. The $XBI tells a better story of the sector because it is not dominated by the big names like Amgen or Gilead. But at the same time, we're not going to just throw out the fact that $AMZN is a huge component of the Discretionary space, for example. So I think it's important to always keep an eye on both the cap-weighted and equally-weighted sector indexes.