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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (01-04-2021)

January 4, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

After several months of consolidation, the major indexes have set the foundation for another leg upward in line with their primary trends. We've been seeing many of them resolve higher in recent weeks.

We continue to see rotation into economically sensitive and cyclical assets - supporting our view that there is a strong appetite, not aversion, for risk.

And the FICC markets continue to confirm this bullish environment for stocks and risk assets.

Let's jump right into this week's report with our US index table.

The defensive Dow Jones Utilities Average was...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-25-2020)

December 29, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

The major indexes continue to hold important levels and many large-cap sectors have laid the foundation for upside resolutions and another leg higher in their relative leadership. 

SMIDs and Micro-Caps have had every chance to digest their recent gains, but we're yet to see that play out. Seeing such strong upward momentum from these stocks speaks to the healthy risk appetite we continue to point out.

FICC markets are also assigning stocks with a clean bill of health and supporting/confirming a continuance of their primary uptrends.

Let's jump right into this week's report with our US index table.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-18-2020)

December 21, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We continue to pound the table on leadership down the market-cap scale. There's been strong evidence over the past few weeks/months suggesting this is a structural trend reversal in the large vs small-cap ratio.

Many key indexes - both large and small, sit at crucial inflection points. Many of the small and mid-cap indexes are also extended and sporting extreme momentum readings, making for a logical level for sellers to step in.

It would be a healthy development for SMIDs to take a breather here and pass the baton back to large-caps for a bit.

The...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-11-2020)

December 15, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's report, we discussed the continued rotation into SMIDS, international markets, and risk assets. Our conclusion is and continues to be that the market remains in a very healthy state of order.

FICC markets are also confirming the move higher in equities.

From a short-term perspective, SMIDS digesting their recent gains would be a healthy development.

While we have yet to see that play out, our long-term outlook continues to favor Growth-oriented stocks down the market-cap scale as a way to express our bullish thesis.

Without further...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-04-2020)

December 7, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's report, we outlined how the market was in an incredibly healthy state of order. We've been seeing rotation into SMIDS and Micro-Caps, strong breadth, and a sustained bid for Growth, particularly down the market-cap scale.

This week, we're harping on a similar theme.

The weight of the evidence, particularly from an intermediate and long-term time horizon, looks excellent.

But from a more short-term and tactical perspective, it would be healthy for many indexes down the market-cap scale to digest their gains. Many sector indexes and ratios are...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (11-27-2020)

November 30, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

Last week, we outlined how the market is in a very healthy state of order.

Nothing has changed from that message. We continue to see strong demand for risk assets and healthy rotation down the market-cap scale.

Additionally, market internals and breadth continue to improve beneath the surface, supporting the recent leg higher for stocks, both domestically and abroad.

Many Growth-oriented groups that have underperformed recently closed at fresh highs this past week, suggesting these are areas we want to continue to lean on to express our bullish thesis.

Let's jump right into the report starting at the US index table.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (11-20-2020)

November 23, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

Last week, we mentioned we were no longer in a split market, but rather in an environment supported by strong internals and an aggressive appetite for risk assets.

This week, we're preaching much of the same.

We continue to see rotation down the market-cap scale, into Micro-Caps and SMIDS, confirming the strong underlying market internals.

Growth and sector leaders, such as Technology $XLK, Communications $XLC, and Consumer Discretionary $XLY are underperforming, but still holding important levels.

Rather than make premature bets on sustained outperformance from sector laggards like Financials, Industrials, and Energy, we...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (11-13-2020)

November 16, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We've explained how we continue to see the weight of the evidence shifting in favor of the bulls with each passing week.

We can finally say we're no longer in a split market environment. Instead, we see a market supported by strong internals where the bias is clearly higher for equities and risk-assets alike.

After the prior week's resurgence from the Tech/Growth trade, as well as new highs from many of the major sectors and indexes, this week showed a strong rotation back into cyclical groups.

I know we've discussed the potential for some serious sector rotation before. But we haven't seen such a strong week from economically sensitive groups like this just yet.

In l...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (11-09-2020)

November 10, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

Despite being in a split market environment, we've pointed out how the weight of the evidence continues to shift further and further in the direction of the bulls with each passing week.

This past week, we finally saw what appears to be the tipping point as stocks and risk-assets were all up generously. We've been waiting for the market to make up its mind from a risk-appetite perspective, as well as for the stock market to pick a direction after almost three months of sideways action.

Not only was the S&P up over 7% last week, but it's following through with a monster move today. The S&P is up about 3.5% as I write this.

But there's even more good news for investors... it looks as...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (11-02-2020)

November 2, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @Haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We discussed markets remaining more or less a mixed bag over recent weeks/months. At the same time, we've pointed out how the weight of the evidence continues to tilt gradually in the direction of the bulls, particularly due to the action we've observed in key risk assets.

This week, we saw that trade unwind a bit as most risk-assets were lower on the week. We're going to need to see a lot more data come in to support a sustained rotation into these more cyclical areas as well as reverse some of these long-term relative trends.

So, after a big week of progress, we're right back to an increasingly bifurcated market environment.

...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (10-26-2020)

October 26, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @Haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We discussed markets remaining more or less a mixed bag over recent weeks/months. At the same time, we've pointed out how the weight of the evidence continues to tilt gradually in the direction of the bulls, particularly due to the action we've observed in key risk assets.

This week, we finally witnessed a meaningful rotation into reflationary assets as yields rallied to their highest levels since June. We also saw a noticeable strengthening from cyclicals.

We think this kind of rotation is a very healthy development for markets.

When investors bid up more economically sensitive assets it speaks to...

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The RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (10-19-2020)

October 19, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @Haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

In recent RPP Reports, we discussed how markets had become more of a mixed bag, particularly equities as they try to recover from September's selloff.

Although, with each passing week we're still seeing more bullish data points than bearish ones, even if only at the margin.

We're still waiting for many of the key assets that we mentioned were trading right at or near critical levels in recent weeks to choose a decisive direction.

We have plenty to cover, so let's kick things off with the US Index table.

As you can see, it was a...