The Mexican peso is the “blue-chip” emerging market currency. It’s long been a favorite for hedge fund carry trades—often paired with the yen—due to Mexico’s relatively high interest rates and liquid FX market.

Beyond its appeal to speculators, the peso has also served as a key risk-on currency—often leading and participating alongside a broad base of international equities and commodities.

Following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum in June of 2024, the Mexican Peso and Mexican stocks took a hit, turning into laggards on the international stage. 

It was clear for those paying attention that the market did not feel optimistic about President Sheinbaum’s economic leadership. 

But the tides are shifting. With a weakening dollar, the Mexican Peso is finding its footing, and Mexican equities are starting to improve in a...

My uncle told me in 1999 that tech was about to take a nap.

I had no idea what the hell he was talking about. I was too busy riding bikes and planning my next trip to a contest. 

But I’ll never forget the timing of his trades.

He sold all his tech stocks and started buying gold miners, micro caps, and commodities.

It sounded crazy to me at the time. But his entire analysis came down to one thing:

The Dollar.

We have not seen a real weak dollar environment in nearly 20 years.

Yeah, we’ve seen pullbacks—2017-18, late 2020-21—but a sustained downtrend?

I haven’t seen one.

Look at the chart. The last real decline was after the dot-com crash in 2000.

Since the Great Financial Crisis, the playbook was simple:

Strong dollar. Strong bonds.

That was the foundation that the ETF market was built on. There are almost 1000 fixed income ETFs.

Meanwhile, weak dollar trades—commodity ETFs, inflation plays—kept getting wiped out.