One of the things I’m trying to be better at this year is letting my winners ride.
In the past, I would often look to reduce my open risk in a winning trade too quickly because I was fearful of giving back hard won gains. I would let my emotions or my PnL dictate when I should exit a portion of a winning position.
Letting my emotions dictate anything is often a recipe for disaster – certainly for me.
Emotions are not an objective reason to exit a trade. We need to let PRICE tell us when our trades are invalidated or vulnerable. Price doesn’t lie, but emotions often do.
Healthcare continues to lead to the upside. While we already have a bullish bet on a sector ETF, it's time for us to drill in a little deeper in search of more beta if this trend is going to continue.
Today's trade is in a name that has been performing great off its December lows and has also been in a longer-term bull market. But only just recently has it begun to outperform against the broader stock market.
— Sean McLaughlin, NLD 📈 ( formerly @chicagosean) (@OptionsSean) February 5, 2024
Today on The Flow Show, me and Steve Strazza chatted about the current $VIX environment, the potential for sideways, volatile trading action, and our internally diverging views on the overall market (JC is getting more bearish, Strazza is still flying the Bull Flag, and I'm closer to Switzerland).
As we dug into it, Strazza floated a couple ideas in the Healthcare space that made sense to me once we fleshed it out.
We got stopped out of a Wells Fargo trade a couple of weeks ago, and it looks like that was the whipsaw it needed to shake weak hands out. And since I was shaken out, I consider myself among the weak hands squad. I'm ok with that.
But given what we've seen since we were stopped out, we're getting back in for another try. This time, with tighter risk management and a longer runway.
For the past seven weeks, it was “do-or-die” for my favorite football team, the Buffalo Bills.
They came into the season as one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl. Las Vegas even had them at good odds to win it all for the first time in franchise history.
Of course, nobody can predict the future. Not in sports, not in markets, not anywhere.
And naturally, the real world had different ideas.
Twelve games into the seventeen-game season, it looked like all was lost and Bills fans would have to “wait ’til next year” once again. The Bills’ record was just 6-6 and they were looking up at 10 teams ahead of them in line for only 7 available playoff spots.
It looked like it was over. They faced a situation where their only real path to make it to the playoffs was to win their final five games. And those final five games were scheduled against a gauntlet of teams who were locks for the playoffs already — each with their own valid dreams of winning the Super Bowl.
This comment was shared today during my appearance on the Morning Show with JC and Strazza.
We were discussing this trade in $TSLA we put on yesterday.
Sure, this trade might have some risk in it.
Newsflash: ALL trades have risk. If there was no risk, there would be no potential reward!
An Iron Condor is a four-legged options spread consisting of equal amounts of short out–of-the-money puts and calls, and long further out-of-the-money puts and calls that protect the position and define the risk.
Here’s the PnL Graph for the $TSLA trade and this is a pretty common structure for an Iron Condor trade:
Look what we have here: a $VIX popping its head up to two-month highs.
Are investors getting a little spooked by the prospect of a tricky earnings season?
We'll be able to figure all that out after the fact. In the meantime, we will use these elevated options premiums to help us ride out some portfolio profitability.
I asked my analysts to find me a big cap name that is trading sloppy.
And the one they came with is a widely followed mega-cap name that has been flopping around in a sideways choppy range which, coupled with upcoming earnings, is helping to juice options premiums.
Here's everyone's favorite EV car maker Tesla $TSLA:
One of the areas I’ve identified where I can improve my trading is in trade selection. Specifically, my trade avoidance.
Due to my early trading experience as a stock trader, it was ingrained in me during my formative trading years to avoid positioning in stocks that are about to announce earnings.
And for good reason.
Once a stock trade is on, our only real defense against punishing losses is to have a stop-loss order working. That’s fine if you trust yourself to always honor your mental stops. But for most of us mere mortals, the good-til-canceled stop-loss order is our best protection.
99% of the time, a stop-loss order works as intended. Sure, we might suffer a little slippage here and there. But it works like a charm in preventing disaster. Especially for intraday trades.
But for overnight holds, a stop-loss order has its limits. And these limits are fully exposed in the event of a binary news release – most notably earnings announcements.
Today's trade is in a name that many American shoppers are familiar with.
You've probably seen TJ Maxx stores everywhere, frequently located in strip plazas throughout the suburbs. And there's a good chance your family has dropped some loot in there, taking advantage of the deals they are famous for.
JC commented today that he's invested in $TJX in his long-term account as a hedge for his wife's spending at this store. I think many of us can relate.
But what's got me most excited about this setup is the recent base just below $100, which would be an all-time high. Around here, we call that the hundred-dolla-roll, and it's one of my favorite setups:
Healthcare is an early leader out of the clubhouse to start the year. We've already seen some big moves in names like Merck, Amgen, and Lilly.
This is a sector rotation that makes sense to us. And for this reason, today's trade is in a name we think will play catchup to these leaders.
But first, lets zoom out to observe this chart of $PFE, highlighting the stock sitting near a level that has acted as strong support for numerous times over the past decade:
Today's trade is in a name that has caught the fancy of aggressive short-sellers. As of the latest update, approximately 25% of the outstanding shares in Chewy Inc $CHWY are held in short positions.
Now, I'm sure the short-sellers have done their homework and have very compelling reasons to be short. I will concede their points to them.
However, short-sellers are human too. And being human means they can also be wrong. And if they are wrong, the only way they can make the losses stop is to buy stock to cover their short positions. If 25% of the float has to cover their shorts, that sets up the possibility of a wildfire to the upside.
It was remarked during our Analyst meeting this morning that "bullish Wells Fargo" is a phrase that hasn't been uttered within our digital walls in a long, long time.
But we're looking to get more exposure to the banking sector, and $WFC is consolidating nicely after a fresh breakout last week. With all-time highs within bull market distance, we feel like we can get aggressive with this name for a run.
Implied volatility in $WFC call options is pretty tame here, so that affords us the luxury of going out six months to play the June options which will give us plenty of time to see if $WFC has the stuff.
