It’s been a wild ride for crypto these past few months.

The post-election rally was one for the record books.

But the same is true for the steep and swift drawdowns that have ensued.

The majority of these altcoins are down more than 50% from their December highs. The average cryptocurrency has been decimated. 

It is common for volatility to spike in both directions at inflection points… and I think the entire crypto market is at one now.

The question is what direction are we going in?

When I think of charts like Binance, Ethereum, or Solana… they’ve been rangebound for a long time. These primary trends are sideways.

Here they are shown trading right around the same levels they were at in Q1 of last year:

So it could really go either way. I don’t have a strong opinion on whether they resolve higher or lower from here. But when I see a resolution, I’m going to go with it. 

I’ll be adding on breakouts and I’ll be out if these ranges break down. In fact, I already ...

Last week, I joined my friend Michael Batnick on “What Are Your Thoughts.”

The guys over at Ritholtz Wealth and the Compound are the absolute best at what they do. For that reason, doing their shows is always an honor. 

But, it’s also a blast. They make talking markets fun.

We talked about a number of topics from breadth, to short-sellers, and even Nancy Pelosi’s latest trades.

Make sure to check out the replay if you missed it.

Anyways, it is on my mind because Batnick brought up the Dollar Tree chart and I’ve been watching it ever since. We both really like the setup. 

Today, I’m pulling the trigger as it looks to be finishing the right shoulder of this inverse head and...

This week was all about mega cap growth.

We kicked off Monday with an AI-themed selloff on the DeepSeek news.

And then over the course of the week, the majority of the magnificent seven names reported earnings. I discussed all the key chart levels and reactions on a livestream yesterday.

Most of them did well, but it’s a mixed bag. 

MSFT got hit. AAPL pulled some gains forward ahead of their report. META is an absolute monster. And the setup in TSLA looks as good as anything after a muted reaction.

This is all great. I own most of these names still, and I’m content with them. I’ve taken profits in some - like META & NVDA, and I’ve added to others - like TSLA & GOOGL, recently. I think they all keep drifting higher. But, they don’t excite me.

US mega tech is no longer a conviction long for me. 

There are...

Last week, I joined my friend Michael Batnick on “What Are Your Thoughts.”

The guys over at Ritholtz Wealth and the Compound are the absolute best at what they do. For that reason, doing their shows is always an honor. 

But, it’s also a blast. They make talking markets fun.

We talked about a number of topics from breadth, to short-sellers, and even Nancy Pelosi’s latest trades.

Make sure to check out the replay if you missed it.

Anyways, it is on my mind because Batnick brought up the Dollar Tree chart and I’ve been watching it ever since. We both really like the setup. 

Today, I’m pulling the trigger as it looks to be finishing the right shoulder of this inverse head and...

Europe has come a really long way in just a short while

The Euro STOXX 50, an index of the largest blue-chip companies in the Eurozone, is up about 10% in less than a month. 

I remember a time not long ago when I was worrying about the potential tops that had formed in Europe.

They never completed. Instead, we hooked higher like we’ve seen so many times before.

This is what the STOXX 50 $FEZ chart looked like coming into the year (in USD).

What a nasty distribution pattern, right?

But here's what it looks like today.

Buyers showed up and defended this key support zone again in December. 

For now this top is nothing like the top from the prior cycle. It's likely just another continuation pattern. It completes on a breakout above 54.

So what is next for Europe?

Considering the messy, rangebound action for...

I keep hearing that today’s FOMC announcement and press conference will be a snoozefest.

I couldn’t disagree more.

I think a major development is riding on the market's expectation for future rate cuts.

In recent weeks, the expectations for the next rate cut have moved forward.

During this time, Trump has put pressure on the Fed, and the latest CPI report showed inflation cooling.

But, the reason doesn’t matter as much as the fact that the bond market is buying the story.

The US 10-yr has fallen from about 4.8% to 4.55% in the last two weeks.

More importantly, it’s taking the US Dollar with it.

DXY is the most critical chart in the world right now and it is moving with the bond market and investors’ expectations for interest rates.

If Powell gives any indication that they are moving lower sooner today, it could be the catalyst needed to fail this breakout and send DXY back into its old range.

If the dollar rolls over here or even falls back into a sideways trend, the impact could be massive for risk assets.

And I don’t just mean US equities. I think international stocks stand to win more than...

I’m really grateful for the path I took in getting where I am today.

I wasn’t always hanging out on an island trading and covering the stock market.

I put in my time. 

I started my career in the Big 4, auditing some of the largest financial institutions in the world.

I spent long nights ticking and tying financial statements and testing derivative valuations for companies like Morgan Stanley and Interactive Brokers.

I know the strangest things about these companies' fundamentals and their history. I made friends and memories I’ll never forget. I was in the room for some historic market events. When I think back on some chapters of my early adult life, they were literally set in these offices. 

But none of the non-public information I learned at these places back in the day is relevant or material now. I have an insider's understanding of these businesses, but no special information about them. 

And I don’t need it. I’m a long-term bull on a lot of these companies simply because of the people who run them. Some have been great mentors over the...

Bears just can’t seem to score any points lately.

They continue to struggle at breaking down even the worst areas of the market. We keep seeing it.

Solar stocks are the latest example.

The whole group was bid up today with some huge moves from the heavily-shorted names. 

Here’s the Solar Index $TAN:

TAN suffered its worst single day performance since the 2020 crash following the election in November. It fell over 10% to new cycle lows.

However, there has been little follow-through in the time since. And today, we saw a nice pop off the pivot lows from last month.

Also notice how TAN hasn’t been oversold for more than a year now as selling pressure has waned. I think bears are slowly losing control. 

They are also positioned way offside when it comes to this basket of stocks. Some of the largest short positions in the market are in the indexes components.

And we can’t finish the bullish argument without discussing the obvious political tailwinds under the new Trump administration.

While I’m...

JC has really been bringing the heat with his chart game lately.

I just rewatched the monthly conference call from Monday night where he ripped through over 115 charts. 

He went over a ton of valuable topics and themes, from forex to sentiment and even some risk appetite.You can sign up here and watch it. These calls are one of the best things we do at All Star Charts.

In the meantime, I stole two of my favorite charts from his slide deck to share with you.

Here’s the first one. This is a textbook topping formation in Eli Lilly $LLY with a peak marked by the old reliable magazine cover indicator from October of last year.

The timing from these headline writers is just too good sometimes. This is the millionth example. They nailed it again.

They call them the “everything drugs.” They are probably not, but let's just go with it. This excerpt is all you need to know about the vibe on the street for GLP-1 stocks.

“[GLP-1 drugs] started as treatments for...

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, no stranger to headline-grabbing stock moves, is back in the spotlight with her latest Periodic Transaction Report—and it’s a big one.

The former Speaker of the House is making bold plays in some of the hottest sectors, doubling down on AI, and other growth trends, while dumping shares in Apple.

Here’s an update of her filing from Friday:

Pelosi recently sold 31,600 shares of Apple $AAPL, with a transaction value of roughly $8 million.

While she has been bullish on Apple in the past, this marks a notable reduction in her exposure. We know that she acquired about half the shares she just sold via call options back in May 2022. She made more than 80% on them.

So, Nancy is bearish Apple. But, we don’t follow her for her insider sales, we follow the Pelosi portfolio because it has been early to some of the best trends in growth investing. The Pelosi’s were early to NVDA. She has...

This one is wild, but hear me out.

I just wrote about how the worst groups aren't breaking down.

Support zones are holding and bears are struggling to take control at key levels.

We’re seeing it with both short and longer term patterns and we’re seeing it across all areas of the market. Bulls keep digging in where they need to.

So I came across this pattern in Nike and thought why not. 

Make no mistake this is a purely technical call… for the most part.

I mean, seriously. Nike is one of the all-time great American brands. That still counts for something.

I’m always thinking about the strongest stocks.

Over the intermediate term, consumer discretionary is on top, rallying more than 40% off the summer lows.

So this is one of the areas where I’m searching for strength right now.

It’s the traditional top-down exercise for picking stocks.

The best way to go about it is to use the relative trends and drill down from sector, to industry, and eventually all the way to the individual component level.

While doing this today, I was flipping through my discretionary industry charts, and the relative ratio for Homebuilders really stood out. 

Here it is retesting a massive base breakout level from above.

This is the Dow Jones Home Construction Index $ITB relative to the Discretionary Sector SPDR $XLY. 

If the ratio digs in and bounces higher here, this is a structural trend reversal for the homebuilders versus their peer group.

The relative trend for homies vs the broader market looks similar. We’re talking about multi-decade bases that are just now resolving higher.