I’ve been pounding the table on Brazil lately.

I can’t remember a time in my career when I thought about these stocks so much.

One of the first things I do every morning is check the BRL/USD pair and Bovespa.

That tells me all I need to know about how my Brazilian ADRs are trending. I’ve built positions in a number of them just recently.

Some are doing well, others like PBR and VALE, not so much.

But, here’s the thing. Investors are dumping their USD exposure and looking around the globe for new opportunities.

I think this has a lot less to do with trade war narratives and rumors, and a lot more to do with the fact that the US has dominated the investment world for a decade and a half.

America has been the only game in town for anyone looking to generate alpha. 

Of course, it couldn’t last forever. 

Stocks around the world are dirt cheap compared to the premium multiples found here.

For example, my two favorite Brazilian ADRs are trading at single-digit P/E multiples right now. 

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First of all, congrats to Goldman Sachs, now the largest component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The last time a bank headlined the Dow was JP Morgan back in 1998.

That’s pretty cool, but that’s all it is. Just a fun fact.

I would say it’s a sign of the times that a tech stock didn’t fill the shoes of UNH, but the Dow is a bit funky in the sense that it is price-weighted instead of cap-weighted.

Speaking of Papa Dow, let’s talk about what’s next for the major averages following the latest beating for US equities.

All the large-cap indexes violated their VWAPs anchored from the April 7 pivot lows this morning. They all tested these levels and held just last week. 

That’s been the line in the sand for me as far as a retest of the lows is concerned. 

With every day the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow are below these VWAPs, the higher the likelihood we’re headed back to the lows...

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We’re not even close to out of the woods yet.

Stocks just experienced their fiercest selloff in years, followed by one of the most significant bounces in market history.

The VIX remains elevated, indicating a roughly 2% daily swing in either direction.

There is little evidence that we’re leaving these volatile times behind. 

I think we’re in rally mode for now, but that doesn’t mean we’re suddenly in a risk-on environment again.

In fact, it’s been quite a risk-off rally since late last week.

I look at the relative performance of offensive and defensive groups to judge this kind of thing.

And here’s one of my favorite charts for it. This is Staples relative to the S&P 500:

And the pattern is what I like to call a bear market base...

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Markets are back in rally mode, and crypto always gives us a good hint as to where things are headed coming into the new week.

Bitcoin, Solana, and friends had a good Saturday session and even repaired some tactical trend damage.

We’ve been discussing various areas of relative strength on our special live streams since last week.

Crypto has been one of them, and the best tokens continue to hold and bounce off key levels.

In fact, I think the potential failed top setups in Ripple and Solana are as good as anything out there right now.

I’m long both for a swing trade and maybe more. We’ll see how things go.

Here is Solana $SOL:

After quickly breaching 120, which has acted as support a good ten times in the past year, SOL just jumped back above this key level and confirmed a bullish...

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My tactical outlook hasn’t changed just because we gave a little back today. 

Wednesday marked one of the largest single-session rallies in market history, and I think it has legs. 

We’re coming off extreme oversold levels with sentiment in washout territory. 

A monster bounce is just around the corner. 

So I’ve been digging through all of our scans over the last few days. Some new, some old. Looking for the best long opportunities. 

They are all different and cover a variety of universes. International stocks, US growth stocks, sector and industry ETFs, commodity stocks, etc. We have something for everything. 

The scans are all similar in a sense that they look to highlight some form of relative strength, momentum, or a combination of the two. 

I’m...

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Today marked the best day for the market since the financial crisis.

I barely remember it. I was still in college.

For some indexes, it was even the best day since the dot-com bust.

I definitely don’t remember that.

Some old souls will tell you someone like me doesn’t have the experience to navigate through an environment like this.

But I think I’m better equipped for it than they are.

I haven’t been broken by past bear cycles. I don’t get psyched out by them. I’m not jaded and I’m not afraid. I just follow the data. 

I’ve been the guy saying bearish things all year...

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In real bear markets, they come for everything. 

There are no survivors. It’s just how it goes. 

In the middle of last week, there were still pockets of strength. 

Things like Financials and Europe were holding up great. 

Then they both had their worst day in years. On Friday, they got absolutely slaughtered.

These massive failed breakouts in MSCI Germany and the SPDR Banks ETF really tell the story. 

The bears finally came for these leaders. 

And how about the defensive groups that have been showing relative strength all year?

Things like Healthcare, Staples, Real Estate, and Utilities. They seemed like a good place to hide. 

Then they got crushed last week like everything else. 

Low volatility stocks suffered their worst day and worst week since the pandemic lows....

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Before I position myself or act in the market, I weigh the evidence in front of me.

It’s my main job. It’s all I think about.

It’s how I make market calls, and it is the basis for my trading and investing decisions.

It’s also my most difficult job. I think any strategist or investor would agree.

The truth is… In technical analysis, there is no special indicator. There is no secret sauce. 

We’re all looking at the same charts. 

And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to discern between an uptrend and a downtrend. Or a top versus a bottom.

That’s not where disagreement is sewn among us. That's rarely what makes one technical opinion or market view differ from another.

It’s about how we weigh all of the different data points.

It’s how we put together the puzzle. 

This kind of expertise comes from time in...

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I’m going to keep zigging while everyone else is zagging.

US equities aren’t even close to out of the woods. 

The bulls were just out here flexing about two green candles. Are you kidding me?

The truth is, this has been a bush league bounce. 

I took some shots, but most of them did not work. So, I’m raising more cash today and loading into some short exposure. This is the most I’ve had all cycle.

Let the non-disciplined buy this dip. There is simply no reason to rush in right now. Until the major averages reclaim their key levels, the bears are firmly in control.

I’m more...

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Those bear flags we discussed last week have since resolved higher.

After a little pop on Friday, today marks a critical follow-through day for the broader market.

But we already talked about how an oversold bounce was basically a foregone conclusion. We literally knew it was coming. The fact that we finally got it is not a bullish data point.

The next step now is to measure and judge the quality of this rally. There could be some bullish evidence there.

I already outlined some of the most important levels I’m paying attention to.

It’s all about VWAPs for the major averages. The large-cap indexes have the August VWAPs, and the SMIDs have the Q4 2023 VWAPs. They’re all right there.

Here’s the S&P 500 drawn up to show the confluence of resistance around this level.

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The current state of the market is indecision.

The major indexes popped to start the week, then they gave it back.

We had a little Powell pump mid-week, and then they gave that back.

Trump’s promise to play nice on tariffs Friday sparked another little rally, and markets closed strong, albeit well off the highs from Wednesday.

This indecision is illustrated by dojis on the weekly charts of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

And frankly, I’m undecided about just how much I want to dip my toes into US stocks right now.

As you know, I think the bulls have a lot of work to do. And with each passing day, I’m just not seeing it.

But you know where I continue to see...

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I’ve been tough on US equities lately. But it’s really nothing new.

Since last summer, I’ve been writing and talking about taking profits in the US - particularly in US growth - and redeploying that capital overseas.

But the truth is I’m rooting for US stocks. I always am.

So, let’s talk about what I need to see to get excited about them again.

In a few notes last week, I stressed the importance of registering two consecutive up-days at the index level. We’re not going to establish a tradable low without some bullish follow-through.

My attitude has been, “talk to me once we get back-to-back green candles.”

And while I’m really not impressed by the action at all, we did achieve this simple milestone earlier in the week. Congrats to stocks!

The bottom line is this is still a “show-me market.” Let’s discuss what bulls need to see next.

It’s all about growth stocks when...