In last Monday's note, we discussed a variety of data points suggesting Bitcoin was in the beginning phases of carving out a tradable bottom.
We also mentioned that we anticipate a few weeks of sideways price action ahead of further upward price discovery. Since then, we've seen a handful of developments paint a more neutral picture.
Unlike spot prices, futures never flipped to buying and are still in a fairly strong regime of selling via calendar futures.
There's also been a gentle deleveraging of open interest and an increase in defensive positioning, as investors have been withdrawing capital off the back of geopolitical volatility.
Meanwhile, legacy markets continue to act as a headwind. Bitcoin and equity trading correlations remain high, and it's yet to be seen whether Bitcoin can front-run equity weakness, like what took place in October last year.
This all takes place as Bitcoin remains above our risk level of 41,000.