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[Premium] April Monthly Chart Review

May 1, 2020

Monthly charts help us focus on the long-term trend when volatility on lower timeframes picks up.

In this environment there are a lot of messy, sideways charts out there, so we're going to look at the clearest trends and focus on those.

Here's the Nifty 50, which is back above its 2015 highs near 9,000. While the uptrend is broken, as long as prices are above 9,000 it's hard to be too bearish. At best, we can call this a sideways trend.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Mid-Caps on the other hand remain below their 2015 highs near 14,000 and remain in a firm downtrend.

Small-Caps are in "no man's land", well below resistance near 4,700 and above support at 2,700. The trend here, as it has been for quite some time, remains down.

Here's the Nifty Financial Services Index, stabilizing above 8,900. Despite a strong bounce this month, prices remain ina  downtrend.

HDFC Bank has stabilized above 820, but remains in a sideways trend at best.

State Bank of India remains in a sideways mess of a range, as it has for a decade. Our target on the downside remains 145, with the market giving us little reason to change that.

Nifty Fast Moving Consumer Goods met our upside target near 33,200 and has been trending higher ever since. We are now in the middle of a sideways trend. Until a break of 33,200 or 21,250 occurs, then we'll continue to trade the range.

Hindustan Unilever failed to hold above 2,300. No reason to be long until prices are above that level, but no reason to be short either as the trend remains clearly higher.

Asian Paints is interesting here. Watching closely to see if prices close back below 1,600 and confirm a failed breakout...or if they continue higher towards ou next target of 2,550. As long as we're above support then the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls.

Nestle India is extended in the near-term, but remains one of the strongest stocks in the market.

Media will continue to struggle as long as Zee Entertainment remains stuck below its 2006-2007 highs near 190. The stock is firmly in a downtrend and is targeting the lows 50s if prices do not reclaim 190 soon.

PVR Ltd. is also a drag on the Nifty Media Index. Prices confirmed a failed breakout and are now in a downtrend. As long as prices are below 1,175 then they remain vulnerable with potential downside towards 750.

Nifty IT remains in an uptrend holding above trendline support and its 2015 highs near 12,150. As long as prices are above that level then the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls.

Until TCS can break above 2,400, the Nifty IT Index will likely be unable to accelerate to the upside.

Reliance Industries is in a sideways trend, but could accelerate to the upside here after closing above 1,460. Any upside follow-through next month would likely signal the continuation of its long-term uptrend.

Ultratech Cement failed to get through resistance near 4,525 and is now stuck in a sideways range. Until 4,525 or 2,900 are broken, there's not much to do here.

Coal India met its downside objective near 125 and is trying to stabilize. Despite hitting our target, that doesn't mean it's a good long opportunity as it remains firmly in a downtrend.

Bharti Airtel continues to press up against all-time highs. A break of resistance near 530 would confirm the start of a new long-term uptrend. Whether that breakout occurs this month or another month remains to be seen, but we do think it happens eventually. There's too much strength in this stock to ignore it.

The bias in Nifty Pharma remains higher as long as prices are above 8,000.

Sun Pharma has yet to break resistance at 475, but looks likely to in the months ahead. We continue to like Pharma as a group longer-term, even if it is a bit extended short-term.

New highs. Any pullback in Dr. Reddy's Labs towards 3,100 should be bought as our target remains 4,925.

Britannia Industries remains a strong stock, consolidating between our two price objectives at 2,200 and 3,500.

Bias remains higher in Colgate-Palmolive India as long as prices are above 1,170, with a target near 1,810.

Bharat Electronics is flirting with a major level at 65-75 here. How this consolidation resolves will determine the coming trend in this stock.

Gold remains in a clear uptrend, but failed to close above 45,000. Some consolidation is likely in the near-term, but long-term if prices are above 45,000 then the bias remains to the upside.

As long as prices remain below 1,900 then Crude Oil remains in a firm downtrend, with a long-term downside target of 300.

Crude Palm Oil is stabilizing above 630. As long as prices are above that level then its breakout from late last year is intact and the bias is higher towards 800.

As long as Natural Gas is above 115, then this long-term sideways trend remains intact and the bias is to the upside.

Cardamom failed to hold above 1,900. We CANNOT be long this if prices are below that level, as the risk remains to the downside.

Tumeric hasn't broken 5,200 yet, but looks likely to in the coming months. A break of that level would signal further downside towards 3,350.

USD/INR is struggling at its former highs of 75. Despite the short-term indecision, the trend remains higher here.

JPY/INR failed to close above 0.7150 again, so its sideways trend remains intact. A breakout above 0.7150 is needed to confirm higher prices.

These are the trends that stick out to us, but what are you seeing?

Check out all of our monthly charts in the chartbook and please let us know if you have any questions.

Allstarcharts Team

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