On Friday, we saw the S&P 500 closed down 1.3%. This marks the 16th time this year that the index has declined by 1% or more in a single day.
Here's the data:
(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)
Let's break down what it shows:
The first column represents the year, while each subsequent column indicates the number of large down days for that year, ranging by declines of 1%, 2%, and 3% or more and total count.
The Takeaway: Although experiencing 16 declines of 1% or more might seem significant, it is actually below the historical average. Since 1950, the average year typically experiences about 25 such declines. During 2024, most of the 16 days with a 1% or more market decline occurred amid a short-term market pullback.
On average, each year tends to have 3 to 4 pullbacks of 5% or more, and in 2024, we have only seen two pullbacks of this size.
Therefore, a similar-sized pullback at this point would be completely normal and wouldn’t be surprising at all.
Would you be surprised to see a pullback of 5% or more?
