The team and I have been digging through our currency charts today, trying to figure out if we should trust these new lows in the Dollar Index.

And the truth is, there is plenty we could say about dollars right now, but I don’t think it would help.

The Dollar Index is going to go in the opposite direction of these bull flags in EUR and GBP.

It’s really that simple. 

And as far as other currencies go, I think we can expect them to follow the majors. Some of them are already breaking out. 

Remember, the major developed currencies started trending well against the dollar first, and then emerging currencies gradually followed. 

I expect that intermarket cadence will continue during the next wave of dollar weakness.

And it looks like it already is. Here’s the Euro and Pound resolving their coils higher against USD:

Both of these currencies ramped to fresh multi-year highs in April and have been consolidating in continuation patterns ever since.

This action reminds me of some of the ...

The Singapore Dollar is roaring higher. 

After more than a decade of basing, the SGD/USD is finally punching through a key breakout level—the 61.8% retracement of its 2011–2020 decline.

This isn’t just another FX pair catching a bid. Singapore is one of the most critical currencies in global trade. The city-state controls the Strait of Malacca—a vital artery for global shipping. 

When the Singapore Dollar is strong, it's usually saying something about global trade flows, risk appetite, and Asia's relative strength on a global stage.

Singapore, plainly put, is the financial hub of Southeast Asia.

So it makes sense to see it break out as we continue to see rotation into EM, and Asia in particular– as well as weakness in the US Dollar.

Zooming out, this is a textbook rounding bottom. The long base. The range-bound price action. The upside resolution. This is classic trend reversal stuff.

And it’s not just the currency flashing a regime change.

Here are Singaporean equities overlaid with SGD:

EWS, the...

We’ve been pounding the table on the rotation taking place across Asian equity markets. Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, China—you name it. 

The message is clear: the tide is turning and participation is broadening across Asia. 

It’s no longer just Japan. Everything else is starting to work.

One of the key forces driving this rotation is a weak US Dollar. When the dollar stumbles, emerging market currencies catch a bid—and local equities tend to follow. 

Here’s the latest in the mix, the Korean Won:

Like many Asian currencies, the Won spent over two years grinding lower in a steady downtrend. Earlier this year, it undercut key support. But instead of breaking down, it snapped back violently. 

It’s a...

From the desk of Steve Strazza

Have you ever heard of the Nokkie-Stokkie?

It’s forex trader lingo for the Norwegian Krone/Swedish Krona… and right now this obscure cross is setting up for a classic failed breakdown.

After undercutting key support in early May, it’s snapping back toward this level now. And with each passing day, it’s looking more and more like a bear trap.

We’re not just writing about this unheard-of FX pair to amuse you. Believe it or not, the currency pair carries valuable insights.

It’s one of our most trusted intermarket energy whisperers.

So it's no surprise the scoop-n-score setup in the NOK/SEK looks almost identical to the one in Crude Oil Futures:

Crude is working on its own bear trap — carving out a tactical reversal pattern just below a shelf of former support.

...

During our time in New Orleans at the Portfolio Accelerator event, I brought the Israeli Shekel to the table—and it sparked a really interesting discussion.

We were diving into global risk indicators, and I was showing how the Shekel is an excellent tell for speculative growth stocks and the “ARKKy” trade. 

That’s because Israel’s economy isn’t built on commodities or manufacturing like so many others—it’s built on software, cybersecurity, and innovation.

It’s one of the top technology countries overseas.

So when the Shekel starts breaking out, it’s not just a local FX story—it’s the market telling us there is demand for some of the most risk-on corners of the stock market.

And right now? The Shekel is on the verge of a major breakout. It’s literally happening as I write this.

This isn’t some quirky currency coincidence. Currencies are always whispering—sometimes shouting—about...

The Canadian dollar is catching a bid. 

And while the CAD rarely grabs headlines like the euro, pound, or yen, it’s no backbencher—it makes up 9% of the US Dollar Index $DXY, just behind the big three.

It flies under the radar of most investors, and I think that’s a big mistake.

Here’s why.

After years of sliding, the CAD/USD rallied off a major level of support near 0.68—a level that’s marked key turning points in both the currency and Canadian stocks for over a decade.

This bounce looks small now, but it matters.

We’ve talked a lot about how EM currencies tend to drive their respective stock markets. When a “peso” rallies, local equities tend to follow. That effect is stronger in emerging markets because of the heavier reliance on USD funding and the volatility of the currencies there.

Canada, on the other hand, has deep, liquid capital markets, a resource-heavy economy, and two major stock...

The dollar is rebounding, but don’t expect it to last

The US Dollar Index $DXY continues to sit near the top of our macro checklist. 

It’s been one of the more important tells of the cycle, not just for currencies—but for equities, commodities, and global risk assets.

Traditionally, the dollar moves opposite to US stocks. But as technicians, we know better than to marry intermarket correlations. These relationships ebb and flow, strengthen, weaken, invert, and sometimes go completely quiet. That’s normal.

Late last year, a big shift took place as stocks began to move with the dollar. It's not typical, but it’s not without precedent either. 

The Taiwan New Dollar just posted its sharpest two-day rally against the US dollar—ever.

This wasn’t just any rally. It was a vertical move—TWD/USD spiked over 10% in two sessions, tagging a near three-year high in the process.

It caught the entire FX complex leaning the wrong way. It was statistically off the charts. 

This wasn’t a six-sigma move. Or even ten. We're talking fifteen sigma. That’s what quants call an “impossible” outcome. A market move so extreme that it breaks the model. 

A 10% move might not turn heads in a tape where spec. growth stocks like HIMS or PLTR can move that and more intraday—but for a currency pair? It’s seismic. Especially when the pair has been dozing in a multi-year falling wedge. 

That pattern? It just resolved higher. The breakout came right at the apex of the wedge—when no one was paying attention.

With this kind of volatility comes a forced unwind. Exporters, insurers, speculators—everyone caught leaning the wrong way gets squeezed out the door. Fast.

So what’s behind it—but more...

The Mexican peso is the “blue-chip” emerging market currency. It’s long been a favorite for hedge fund carry trades—often paired with the yen—due to Mexico’s relatively high interest rates and liquid FX market.

Beyond its appeal to speculators, the peso has also served as a key risk-on currency—often leading and participating alongside a broad base of international equities and commodities.

Following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum in June of 2024, the Mexican Peso and Mexican stocks took a hit, turning into laggards on the international stage. 

It was clear for those paying attention that the market did not feel optimistic about President Sheinbaum’s economic leadership. 

But the tides are shifting. With a weakening dollar, the Mexican Peso is finding its footing, and Mexican equities are starting to improve in a...

We’ve been talking about this regime shift for months — the slow rotation out of dollar strength and into international stocks.

Today, the chart stopped whispering and started shouting.

The U.S. Dollar Index $DXY just broke a level it held for nearly two years. 

That floor caught every correction since 2023. Until now.

This isn’t just technical analysis. It’s storytelling in price form.
 
King Dollar isn’t king anymore. 

Money is moving. 

Out of safe havens. Into metals, emerging markets, and global equities.

The world isn’t betting on U.S. dominance. It’s betting on rotation. On sticky inflation. On global demand that doesn’t need permission from the Fed.

We’ve positioned for this:

• International markets over U.S. large cap.
...

Global equities are on a tear.

From China to Europe to Latin America, they're outperforming the U.S. so far this year.

However, while they look strong, many key indexes are approaching critical inflection points.

These three charts illustrate exactly where things stand and highlight the potential for what might come next.

If the global growth narrative is going to play out, we need to see these international indexes break higher.

Even more importantly, EEM needs to follow suit.

Under that scenario, I want to be buying a lot of these...

When it comes to Canada, it's not about tariffs or political headlines making the rounds these days.

The real focus is the Canadian Dollar.

With nearly a 10% weighting in the Dollar Index $DXY, CAD is a crucial piece of the broader currency puzzle.

CAD/USD is pressing against a decade-long support zone, hovering around a key level that triggered strong reversals in 2016 and 2020.

What makes this even more significant is CAD’s close correlation with commodities—especially oil and metals—due to Canada’s heavy exposure to natural resources.

Just look at how the Canadian Dollar has historically traded alongside Crude Oil over the past years.

They look almost identical.

They say history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. If CAD/USD rips higher from here and buyers defend support around 0.68, we can expect energy stocks, metals, and...