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Divergences Add Up Ahead of Rug Pull

February 3, 2024

Stocks move first, and then the indexes follow.

It's a market of stocks, remember?

And while the S&P500 may have just had its 4th consecutive weekly gain of at least 1%, the stocks themselves are NOT doing that.

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International Hall of Famers (02-02-2024)

February 2, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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Sick of Whipsaws? Hogs Can Help

February 2, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Holy reversals, Batman!

The tactical direction flipped for the dollar and rates this morning on the heels of stronger-than-expected job growth. 

Whipsaws are dotting the charts, erasing weeks of progress.

How should we react?

Today, I want to show you a trade we can take to sidestep the market chop.

Live cattle futures are posting modest gains today (up roughly 0.50%) as they mosey toward last year’s high. 

Most importantly, they’re shrugging off the broad intraday volatility.

Plus, the structural uptrend remains intact. And I can’t help but wonder if and when lean hogs will catch up to cattle

Check out live cattle overlaid with lean hog futures:

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Here Comes The Rug Pull

February 2, 2024

There's nothing like a good rug pull.

Especially when I'm able to make money from it.

This is the type of environment where they happen.

Some of our biggest clients are hedging their positions by buying puts.

Some are outright net short.

It all depends on what you're trying to accomplish as an investor.

Here are a few of the many warning signs we're seeing out there:

Look at High Beta rolling over last month, while S&Ps kept roaring higher.

Not to mention the Dollar strength we're seeing is off the charts. There's your divergence in EM currencies.

And of course, we've already discussed rotation into Consumer Staples:

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[Options Premium] Meanwhile, We’re Hedging

February 2, 2024

We’re gonna keep this quick cuz I’m on the road doing errands.

I just got off the phone with JC, who called me in the car. His “spidey senses” are tingling and he thinks there might be a low-risk/high-reward opportunity to short the broader indexes here.

He likes it both as a standalone bearish bet and as a portfolio hedge against a bunch of longs that are working for us right now.

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[Options Premium] Traveling Higher

February 2, 2024

Today's trade is a "keep it stupid simple" kinda trade that might take a little intestinal fortitude if you do not enjoy buying stocks at all-time highs.

But in my experience, these are the types of stocks that continue to defy odds.

So let's get after it.

Director Katabi Reports a $5 Million VERA Purchase

February 2, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a series of Form 4 filings by Maha Katabi, director of Vera Therapeutics $VERA.

Katabi reported a purchase of 161,290 VERA shares, equivalent to $5 million.

Defensive Rotation Continues

February 2, 2024

February is one of the worst months of the year to own stocks.

Is that why we've been seeing all this rotation into defensive sectors?

Think about it, we haven't seen any rotation at all into Consumer Staples this entire bull market.

Until now.

And if you go back and study the history of bag holders, you'll notice that they love buying stocks when Consumer Staples finally start to become leaders.

This is classic rotation you see quite often ahead of a tough time for the market:

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Sick of Whipsaws? Hogs Can Help

February 2, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Holy reversals, Batman!

The tactical direction flipped for the dollar and rates this morning on the heels of stronger-than-expected job growth. 

Whipsaws are dotting the charts, erasing weeks of progress.

How should we react?

Today, I want to show you a trade we can take to sidestep the market chop.

Live cattle futures are posting modest gains today (up roughly 0.50%) as they mosey toward last year’s high. 

Most importantly, they’re shrugging off the broad intraday volatility.

Plus, the structural uptrend remains intact. And I can’t help but wonder if and when lean hogs will catch up to cattle. 

Check out live cattle overlaid with lean hog futures:

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Buyers Lift the Offer for Bonds

February 1, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The FOMC stuck to its script this week, kicking the can and keeping rates steady.

Everyone was expecting the news. But the market wasn’t expecting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (the man, the myth, the legend) to completely dash its hopes of a March cut. 

Strangely enough, rates continue to fall on the news – even as markets adjust to the possibility of the initial rate cut now coming in May.

Before you run out to buy US treasury bonds, check out the overlay chart of the US 2- and 30-year yields:

There’s a big difference.

The 2-year yield is churning sideways, reflecting the market’s expectations of the FOMC’s next move – nothing in the foreseeable future.