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"It's Only The High End Consumer"

June 29, 2024

I'm being told that the Consumer is dead and can't afford anything.

That's why "it's only the high end retail" that is doing so well....

Take Williams-Sonoma for instance. It's harder to afford the things they sell at this place:

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The Hall of Famers (06-28-2024)

June 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $3T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Arista Networks and Crowdstrike.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the...

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Commodities: Tracking a “Natural” Correction

June 28, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Our cotton and sugar trades are working. Coffee is raring to go.

And crude oil is pushing toward a solid first-half finish.

Beyond that, commodities are dribbling lower.

Let’s review an energy contract that broke out two months ago and has never looked back—Natty Gas!

Natural gas futures are carving out an eighteen-month base below last year’s high:

I outlined our bullish outlook in late April. Natty Gas ripped the following week, rallying more than a dollar in just six weeks.

Now, price is consolidating within a twenty-percent range (potential right shoulder):

An upside resolution above the June highs offers another opportunity to buy natural gas. I like adding to current...

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Freshly Squeezed (06-27-2024)

June 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

While the market remains a mixed bag and participation is lacking, we're still seeing evidence of risk appetite.

How do we know?

The stocks that investors are betting against the most are making big moves... to the upside.

And we know just what to do in these environments.

We find the most heavily shorted stocks in our freshly squeezed universe. We wait for momentum to come into these names, and then we ride them higher with the squeeze.

We got new short data recently, so let's talk about how we're playing it.

Our scan is quite simple. It is designed to identify stocks with the most aggressive short positions. When a stock is shorted, it means incremental buyers are waiting in the wings to close out their bearish bets.

We love this, as new buyers are the one true catalyst for higher prices.

When shorts are proven wrong, they become buyers of the stock. In many cases, this happens as momentum flows into these names and fuels massive short-covering rallies.

For this reason, we pair short-interest data with short-term momentum overlays, as this...

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[Options Premium] Look Out (Five) Below

June 28, 2024

It's a bull market. No question. But that doesn't change the fact that I'd still like to add some downside diversification to my portfolio in the weakest names the stock market has to offer, just in case.

Today's short trade candidate appears to be hanging on the precipice of a potentially swift and brutal fall. This is as good an opportunity as I can see to help protect my portfolio in the event we see a market pullback.

Michael Martin: A Tribal Inner Game

June 28, 2024

Born with an entrepreneurial spirit and temperament, Michael grew up in a working-class community full of blue-collar, salt-of-the-earth people who worked honest days for an honest wage. And it rubbed off on him. How could it not? 

In order not to be a financial burden on his family, he knew he needed to get out there and hustle. He shoveled snow, mowed lawns, caddied, and worked as a server and waiter. He worked 15 hours a week while in college so that he could earn a degree from Columbia University.

While his peers were coasting through school with trust fund cash bankrolling their adventures, the only free time Michael had was spent in the library, reading books, writing papers, and repeating.

His blue-collar work ethic paid off to this point. But making the transition into the “white-collar” world of finance wasn’t easy.

Trump Warrants Pushing All-time Highs

June 28, 2024

The price of Biden's namesake memecoin Jeo Boden is down 45% overnight since the debates.

Not surprising to see this token pushing all-time lows.

Meanwhile, in Tradfi, the price of the Trump Media Warrants are pushing new all-time highs.

Notice how much stronger the Warrants have been compared to the common stock:

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📅 Buying the Dip

June 28, 2024

I keep coming back to the fact that we've just experienced a reset in the context of a bull market.

The primary uptrends are still higher.

So when I see coins consolidating and retesting support in the context of bull markets, I'm viewing that as a buying opportunity.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are a number of coins that have broken down to new lows. But it wouldn't surprise me to see these catch higher in the coming weeks, putting in the classic 'not a top' pattern we've seen so much in this bull market.