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Offense Versus Defense

February 10, 2024

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

As we exit the best three-month period for the stock market, we're looking to our risk appetite indicators to help us determine the next directional move.

The charts below are all excellent tools for helping identify what kind of environment we are in.

During bull markets, investors embrace risk. In bear markets, they reduce their risk.

Understanding and analyzing the balance between defensive and offensive assets helps keep us on the right side of the trend.

Let's get into it:

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Update on Our Short Positions

February 10, 2024

We're shorting bank stocks now too.

More details on that below.

But first...

Breaking News: "Dow Futures fell 100 points and the VIX rose this Friday on news of new all-time highs for the stock market"

The breadth continues to deteriorate with every week that goes by.

You notice?

You can see it in our trades as well. While the puts on our $SPY and $QQQ haven't started to work yet, the bearish trades on individual stocks are all either working or flat.

It's interesting. What you see in happening in the portfolio, you can also see happening in the market itself.

We saw new all-time highs this week for the S&P500. But we had the fewest stocks in the S&P500 above their 200 day moving average since December. And the fewest above their 50 day moving average since November.

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The Hall of Famers (02-09-2024)

February 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

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How to Trade Energy’s Seasonal Tailwind 

February 9, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to turn our attention to the energy space.

The same market conditions that favored energy in Q3 of last year are brewing. 

Interest rates are rising. King Dollar is refusing to step aside.

And energy contracts – especially crude oil – are entering a historically strong period of the year.

Check out crude oil’s seasonality since 1984: 

February kicks off the strongest four-month period of the year.

Meanwhile, energy contracts are forming potential bullish reversals.

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[Options Premium] Shorting a Massive Topping Pattern

February 9, 2024

As many of our longs continue to work in this current leg higher in the stock market, I like putting on bearish bets as portfolio hedges to cushion the blow if/when the turn comes.

And the best way I know how to do it is to position bearishly in stocks that are already falling. If they are performing poorly now, I have to believe there is a lot more downside should a downdraft hit the broader market.

My analysts published their latest Short Report, and one of the names caught my attention.

 

Rates: Higher for Longer It Is! 

February 9, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Whenever a fellow parent asks what I do, I tell them I comment on interest rates.

I’m not involved in the semiconductor industry or the AI revolution. I don’t rob community banks (a personal favorite, despite mixed reactions). And I certainly do not analyze fixed-income, forex, and commodity markets (that’s a show-stopper).

The only thing people want to know these days – whether they’re navigating Wall St. or Main St. – is where rates are headed. 

But no one seems to be listening to the one person who has a direct impact on the direction of US Treasury yields…

Venrock Healthcare Reports a $1.2 Million KALV Buy

February 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners.

The firm reported a purchase of roughly $1.2 million in KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc $KALV.

All Star Charts Gold Rush

How to Trade Energy’s Seasonal Tailwind

February 9, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to turn our attention to the energy space.

The same market conditions that favored energy in Q3 of last year are brewing. 

Interest rates are rising. King Dollar is refusing to step aside.

And energy contracts – especially crude oil – are entering a historically strong period of the year.

Check out crude oil’s seasonality since 1984: 

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Morning Crypto Clarity: February 9, 2024

February 9, 2024

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

 

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Bitcoin rallies into the 46,000, erasing its post-ETF gains.

Bitcoin dominance has climbed on this recent rally, pointing to Bitcoin’s leadership in this move.
 

FEATURED CHART

The Russell 2000 index $IWM is an index representing small-cap stocks in the United States. In recent months, the index has been coiling in a series of higher lows and lower highs. These contractions in volatility often proceed with directional moves. The price action in IWM is getting tight, pointing to a resolution in either direction.