One of the things we've been monitoring closely over the past month is the new lows list.
I see very often how people love to just subtract random numbers from each other, mostly for the sake of subtracting.
There's really no reason for it.
For example, lately I'm sure you've noticed some traders and analysts taking the new 52-week high list and then arbitrarily subtracting the number of new 52-week lows from it.
We didn't see any follow through on Tuesday's equity market sell-off. Bears need to continue to exert their dominance should that brief bout of selling become more meaningful over longer timeframes.
Bitcoin is steadily climbing, supported by strong spot ETF flows.
Chatter about the halvening is heating up. We're of the view this is mostly gossip and noise.
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We're always in a search for relative leaders, irrespective of the market environment. As Bitcoin has been progressing higher, Bitcoin's market-cap dominance has been rallying. This suggests that this recent market uptrend is largely a Bitcoin story; but there are still pockets of outperformance outside the major coins.
Helium $HNT is a great example. It's broken to new highs from this consolidation, and the uptrend is once again resuming higher.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.
It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
The only real safe haven out there continues to be the US Dollar.
That's it.
When money flows into the Dollar, stocks are under pressure. You may not always see it at the index level, but you can certainly see it when you count and go one by one across the stock market.
The US Dollar bottomed on December 27th. That was also the day that the Advance-Decline line on the NYSE put in its top. It was also the day that the Russell2000 Small-cap Index peaked.
Crypto markets continue stair stepping higher, as Bitcoin decisively moves into the 50,000s.
Stocks see selling pressure return, with the Russell 2000 Small-Cap index $IWM recording its worst single day performance since the bear market low in June 2022.
Bitcoin shows a surprising amount of relative strength as risk markets weakened in the backdrop of strong spot ETF flows.
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In the lead-up to the Bitcoin spot ETF, traditional finance managers were expressing their confidence in the futures market to take advantage of the Bitcoin repricing rally. But as attention turns to a Ethereum spot ETF, it appears that investors aren't showing much conviction in Ethereum, with CME open interest declining YTD.
In Monday’s letter, we made the case that the market has successfully resolved higher from the post-ETF consolidation. This came after a number of data sets suggested we had seen a reset in the consensus bullish sentiment and positioning in the lead-up to the ETF approval. With the market pressing higher, we want to position ourselves to take advantage of this reaccelerating trend.
