One of the more interesting scenarios across the global market place is what is happening in the US Dollar, and the Euro component more specifically. Remember, the Euro represents a majority in the entire US Dollar Index. On Monday, the Euro engulfed the prior 13 trading sessions. This means that it made a new low, below the past few weeks trading, and then reversed to close at a new high, above any of the highs over the past few weeks.
I like to keep an open mind. The one thing I'm certain of is that I'm not certain of anything. So I weigh all of the evidence and then try to find the best risk vs reward opportunities based on the cards that we've been dealt. We can't let our emotions impact our decision making, it has to be 100% dependent on the data at hand. Today, I think one of the more interesting situations is in the US Dollar Index.
One of the characteristics of bull markets and strong uptrends is sector rotation. While Technology was the first to start leading the market higher in July, Financials and Transportation stocks have recently held the leadership duties. You can start to throw in Industrials the past few weeks into the leadership category as well. Meanwhile, some of the mega-cap names have held back Technology, at least temporarily, from continuing to make new highs. But when you look underneath the surface, I believe there is a much different story to tell.
When we talk about asset allocation, similar questions often come up: More International stocks? More Emerging Markets? More US Investments? Where do we rotate as we head into next year? These are all common themes normally brought up in this type of conversation. So using only facts to help our decision making, let's look at price and see what, if anything, it is pointing to.
This is a chart of the S&P500 ETF $SPY compared with the ACWI Ex-US Index ETF $ACWX:
Last week I shared with you guys a "Mystery Chart" without any labels on it. The point of this exercise is to eliminate any biases and focus only on facts. The only truth in the market that we can count on is price. Sell side analysts are going extinct because they offer little value, the media is often either wrong or lying to you, the same can be said about C-level executives, and the list goes on and on. None of these people are reliable. This is why the only thing we can count on is price. It's just math. So we prefer to focus on that and ignore the rest of the noise.
Today we're looking at a rare development in economically sensitive assets that I think have much broader implications for stocks and commodities moving forward:
There have been a lot of really amazing moves this week in the market. But one interesting development that I don't hear much chatter about is the monster move in Value stocks vs Growth stocks. Value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan have exploded higher the past week at the same time that Wells Fargo stopped crashing. Meanwhile, in Growth land Amazon and Facebook have had a tough time. You can see this beautifully in the charts.
Over the past few days I've received requests from readers about my thoughts on Russian stocks. While I don't particularly care about the US/Russia relations when it comes to picking stocks to buy and sell, it seems to be something of interest to a lot of people. So let's dive in.
Every now and then I throw out a mystery chart just to get us thinking. Not knowing what a chart represents helps eliminate biases or any ideas we may already have in our heads. Today we are looking at what I think is one of the more interesting developments in the market today.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets. Transports and Copper continue to make new highs while US Treasury Bonds keep selling off on the back of higher interest rates. We'll discuss all of these issues and more.
This month's Conference Call will be held on Tuesday November 15, 2016 at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:
