Next week I'll be flying into Chicago for a couple of days. I've been asked to speak at the University of Chicago School of Financial Mathematics as well as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The appetite for learning about Technical Analysis that I am finding all over the world is incredible. When I was invited to present at both of these prestigious institutions, Univ of Chicago & CBOT, I jumped at the opportunity. I love Chicago and have friends and some business to take care of there anyway so it works out great. My only catch was that the Cubs had to be in town. They made it happen and I'll be there next week!
We've been able to avoid some short-term messy sort of action lately. We'll take it. The breadth internals of the market had been suggesting since early March that something was wrong. The major indexes breaking uptrend lines further emphasized those characteristics of distribution. Momentum putting in bearish divergences at the highs from Q4 and Q1 this year also pointed to more neutral positioning towards equities. Most of our upside targets had also been achieved by early March and that was difficult to ignore. It's a weight-of-the-evidence approach for me, there's no question.
Today we're going to make the bullish case for US Stocks. Not that I think we rip higher every day from here and we need to buy everything in sight, but I do think it's worth paying attention to the developments from early this week. I also want to pinpoint exactly what we want to see moving forward before getting full on aggressive towards US Stocks as we did in July last year and in late January before that.
The US Stock Market has been like watching grass grow. It's a hot mess and I'm all for it. We turned Neutral towards US Stocks in March so watching both the bulls and the bears get whipped around is great theater from our cash heavy seats. Nothing I've seen in the past couple of weeks has changed my opinion on this environment. To the contrary, everything continues to suggest having huge cash positions and not trying to be too aggressive - long or short. Cash is king sometimes and neutral is a position too, don't forget that.
Many of us have the ability to invest in other markets. For the few of you who cannot, I still think it's a good learning experience and a valuable academic exercise to explore other markets. You might not be trading (or allowed to trade) foreign markets today, but I promise you that one day in the near future, buying stocks in India will be as seamless as buying Microsoft or Apple. For most of us, it already is. The world is getting smaller, not bigger.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We've been implementing a much more neutral approach towards equities and even most commodities over the past month. This strategy has worked well as many stocks, sectors and countries continue to be a mess. There are times to step on the gas and really push it, like last summer for example. But other times, it's best to sit tight and wait for things to set up in the direction of a trend. A sideways mess is no fun for anyone. That's what we're in right now.
I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! It will be held on Tuesday April 18th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:
These are the registration details for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts India.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday, April 21st at 7 PM IST. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since our launch.
The bond market has been fascinating lately for sure. Sentiment has been in one direction while price has gone in the complete opposite. Everyone seems to expect rates to rise and therefore bonds to fall. Position data certainly suggests that - the Commercial Hedgers have had a historic net long position. In other words, while the crowd assumes rates are going higher, the smart money is betting on the complete opposite happening. The ultimate arbiter, of course, is price. So today we want to take a look at what the intermarket components of the bond market are suggesting about the future of interest rates.
This morning I had a chance to sit down and chat with the good folks over at Benzinga. I've been doing interviews with Joel and Dennis for years. They've done a nice job of getting some really good guests on here consistently so it's great to be a part of that group.
Today we discuss U.S. Markets, Interest Rates, Silver, US Dollar and the growth in India's stock market. Here is the audio in full:
We're in the market to make money. It should not matter whether that money is made in Energy stocks, Technology, U.S. Equities, European or Chinese. The point is to find opportunities as they come, wherever they come from. I think as we progress into 2017 it is becoming very clear to me that we need to be focused on what is going on in India. Whether we're looking at the currency or the stock market, something interesting is happening here and I think it would be irresponsible of us to ignore.
I'm in New York City this week attending a couple of investing conferences so I went by the Nasdaq to chat with Business News Network about the current market environment. I've been consistently bullish since last year with an upside target in the S&P500 near 2335 and that objective was achieved last month. Now we're starting to see the breadth of momentum deteriorating on the most recent highs. The 2.3% level in the U.S. 10-year yield is the big area we're watching. I think the resolution here in rates will tell us a lot about risk appetite for stocks as we enter the second quarter.
Here is the interview in full (requires flash player):
Last week the Nasdaq100 went out at new all-time weekly closing highs. While that might seem like a bullish characteristic on the surface, I think it's important to recognize what is happening within the actual index itself. Like I always try and reiterate, this is not a "stock market", it is a market of stocks. Today we're going to take a look at what is actually going on here.
