As many of you already know, I do a lot of work on stock markets all over the world. It's part of my weight-of-the-evidence approach, but it also gives me the opportunity to learn from investors and traders who come from completely different cultures and bring a unique perspective. How else can we learn if not by exposing ourselves to new things?
Recently I was going through my India Nifty workbook where I keep all of my notes on the India Indexes like the NIFTY50, NIFTY500, NIFTY100, NIFTY Mid-caps, etc. It's a very similar workbook to the one I keep for the United States where I include the S&P500, DJIA, Russell2000, etc. I consider all of this to be the "top" of my top/down approach to equities. We start with the indexes, work our way down to the sectors and industry groups and ultimately to the individual stock level.
We want to approach the market from the top/down and look at it from different perspectives. Today I want to point to two indexes in particular that tell two separate stories but each suggests higher prices are coming for stocks in India.
There are many different Indexes representing equities in India and they are each part of a group of stocks that share common characteristics. The idea is to look at all of them and use each one as a piece of a giant puzzle.
Here is a list of trade ideas organized by date, ticker symbol and directional bias. Please make sure you have clicked on the link and read the details surrounding the trade before acting upon any of them. Also, make sure you have checked with your financial advisor and tax accountants to make sure you are suitable to be executing what is discussed on this website. The risk management procedures and targets are detailed for each idea. Please read and review the terms and conditions page before making any trades of your own.
It's hard not to reflect on the past 12 months as we celebrate the New Year with our friends and family. For me it's both a blessing and a curse. While it's exciting to begin 2018 on a fresh note, I really didn't want 2017 to end. It's been an amazing year of learning and growing as an investor and a business man. It's not easy, but every challenge brings its own lessons and rewards. It's never a loss if you can learn from the experience.
Today I wanted to share what I'm thinking about the past year and what I'm expecting as we enter 2018. I do this because I believe it's therapeutic to put thoughts down on paper. I encourage everyone to keep some sort of journal, whether in a public forum like me or private. It's also important to me to continue to think out loud so readers can better understand where I'm coming from. I think we always need to know who is writing and producing the content we are consuming. Whether it's via text, audio, video or otherwise.
We do not make end of 2018 forecasts. I think it's irresponsible to think that we have any idea of what will happen a year from now. We want to reevaluate our thesis as time goes on and new data comes in. This reevaluation process occurs consistently throughout the entire year. How else can we manage risk responsibly? Are we supposed to place our bets after New Years and just hope for the best? Come on.
Take a deep breath. Forget everything we did this year and only think about where we are today. The idea is to keep an open mind and keep every option available. If we've loved something in 2017, that doesn't mean we can't hate it in 2018. Just because we've been shorting something this year, doesn't mean we can't be buyers in the next coming quarters. We're not here to be right, we're here to make money. We can't forget that and let ego take priority over profitability. It's important to be aware of our cognitive behavior patterns and this is one of them.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts India Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the India Share Market. We take a look at all of the NSE Indexes and Sectors as well as some of our own custom indexes. At Allstarcharts we have become known around the world for the top/down approach to stocks. After we analyze each of the indexes and sectors and have identified where the strength and weakness lies, then we break it down to individual stock opportunities. By having momentum, relative strength and market trend in our favor, the probabilities of success increase dramatically.
I don't make as many TV appearances as I used to when I lived in New York City, but when I'm town I love to swing by the FOX Business studios to chat with my old pal Liz Claman. She respects our Technical approach and understands the value that we bring to both institutional and retail investors.
This week I sat down with her to discuss the risk vs reward opportunities we currently see in the S&P500, Bitcoin and Steel Dynamics $STLD. I think this conversation was quick and to the point, just how we like it.
Pretty much every day for the past 15 years I've been asked the same question: What should I invest in? The way I get asked is always changing, of course. It's been, "How many houses should I buy in Miami since real estate only goes up?" to, "Which marijuana penny stock should I buy?" to, "Which crypto do I buy" (not if. which one?). The "sexy assets" of each era are all different, but the idea is the same. Because of my interest in markets, this question is constantly fired my way.
The answer I give isn't always well received, but it comes from the bottom of my heart. If you want to invest, where better to do that than in yourself? Go buy a book and spend the time to read it. Go reach out to someone you look up to and buy them a drink, or coffee or lunch and learn from them. Go travel to a far away land and meet with the locals. All of these "investments" are probably going to go a lot further than the litecoin you just bought because your nephew told you it's a good idea and you saw someone talking about it on the tv.
This week I was in New York City working on some really cool things that I'll be announcing next quarter. It has been an incredible year and I think 2018 is going to somehow be even better! While I was in town, I swung by the Nasdaq Marketsite to chat with my friends over at BNN in Canada. They wanted me to talk about my thoughts on Bitcoin (of course), precious metals and U.S. equities.
It was a quick hit but I think I laid out some really interesting opportunities with very well defined risk parameters. As long as the potential reward is exponentially greater than the risk and the trend is on our side, I see little reason not to be all over these. There have been some very powerful trends in these markets over the past few years that I think continue into 2018.
What often gets lost in the shuffle between whether or not to buy emerging market stocks is the fact that there are several important components within the group. Emerging markets aren't just one thing. They are a collection of major markets around the world that are not yet fully developed.
Today we're talking about the structural breakout we're seeing in shares of the India Exchange Traded Fund $INDY. Look at the former highs in 2011 that were tested again in early 2015. This year prices were finally able to break out above that key resistance to begin a new leg higher. These are characteristics of uptrends, not downtrends. The weekly bar chart tells the story well:
