Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts India Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the India Share Market. We take a look at all of the NSE Indexes and Sectors as well as some of our own custom indexes. At Allstarcharts we have become known around the world for the top/down approach to stocks. After we analyze each of the indexes and sectors and have identified where the strength and weakness lies, then we break it down to individual stock opportunities. By having momentum, relative strength and market trend in our favor, the probabilities of success increase dramatically.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
The new volatility regime in 2018 has caused many to question the uptrend in stocks that we've seen the past couple of years. In this call we will go over all of the markets around the world including intermarket relationships that help us identify whether risk appetite overwhelms any risk aversion we're seeing from institutional investors. On Thursday, we'll focus on a series of indicators that we look for to develop a list of stocks and commodities that we want to be buying throughout the 2nd quarter. I think there is more opportunity to profit today than we've seen in a long time.
This month's Conference Call will be held on Thursday April 19th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:
Over 90% of the time, sentiment data is completely useless to me. I only care about it when we see it at or near extremes, which is not often. Some people dismiss sentiment data altogether in favor of tools that can be used more frequently. Not me. I'll stay patient all day and just wait for my pitch. The unwinds from extremes in sentiment can be very powerful and last much longer than investors usually expect.
Currently, we're seeing an interesting setup in Silver. Commercial Hedgers, which are traditionally the "Smart Money", have on pretty much their smallest hedges of all-time. In fact, Commercial Hedgers, who are always short Silver Futures, it's just how short, are now almost net long! That never ever happens. So it's got my attention.
As homo sapiens we're hard wired to feel the need to gossip. This goes back hundreds of thousands of years throughout evolution. We still see it today and through the speed of communication technology, that gossip gets amplified. While some would argue the issues of today's society are unique, anyone who studies history knows that none of what we're seeing today is new.
It's our job as investors to be aware of this cognitive behavior flaw and work on avoiding the potentially disastrous implications of allowing our evolutionary gossip habits to enter into our portfolio decision making process. I've seen some amazing technicians and traders let their political opinions get in the way of their "process" and watched their horrible downfall. It's been heart wrenching to watch, but the lessons learned by witnessing their collapse is something that will stay with me forever.
The current political and economic environment is unique in it's own way, but they always are. Rather than focusing on the noise, I've found it extremely valuable to pay attention to the only thing that actually pays us: price.
Stocks in India are going up, on both an absolute and relative basis. Let's not forget that. So it's our job to isolate the ones with the most favorable risk vs reward scenarios. The idea is to risk the least amount in the case that we're wrong, but be able to profit the most when we're right. This week I put together a list of the stocks with attractive setups in the NIFTY50 Index. Today we're focusing on the NIFTY Next 50, which are the remaining stocks in the NIFTY100.
I look at facts. There are many people who choose a variety of other factors that aren't necessarily true. Market participants all over the world look at economic data (which are estimates), statements from CEOs of companies (do you trust them all? if not, which ones and why?), analysts ratings (are opinions) and an infinite of other metrics that have no history of being fact. Price, on the other hand, is the only truth we can be confident in believing. I'm selfish, if I can't trust that my data is correct, how could I possibly trust the outcome?
As we enter the second quarter I would say there are mixed signals coming from different markets. My conclusion is that there are more positives than negatives. One in particular that stands out is the strength in Indian Banks. A few of them are pushing up against new highs and both the relative strength and positive momentum in such an important sector can't be ignored. Also, we're seeing strength around the world in Emerging Markets, India included. I think we're finally seeing the rotation back into India on a relative basis.
Today we're going over some of the more favorable risk vs reward opportunities within the NIFTY50 Stocks:
You often hear people call it, "Dr. Copper". They say the metal has a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. I'm not sure about all that, but I do see a strong correlation between it and Emerging Market stocks. Today we're taking a look at these two assets and why Copper's next move is likely to coincide with the direction of Emerging Market stocks.
Jon Najarian has been trading options since the early 80s when he first entered the Chicago pits. I've always had an appreciation for the way Jon looks at the behavior of market participants through the options market, particularly the largest institutional players. By monitoring the volume size of these trades, he pays close attention to what the biggest participants are doing, often times trading alongside the "smart money". I think his perspective on this specific area of the market adds a ton of value to our conversations about Technical Analysis. In this episode, we discuss the new higher volatility regime in U.S.
