Over the weekend as I was doing my run through the entire S&P 500, I noticed some emerging strength in areas that aren't quite as sexy as Medical Devices or Railroads (kidding). Instead, what I found was a number of potential long opportunities in the Real Estate, Utilities, and Telecom sectors. While the long-term relative performance of these sectors is nothing to write home about, as I explained in my Agribusiness post, I still think it's important to point out strength on an absolute basis because it contributes to the weight of the evidence and provides value to those who may have a portfolio approach that includes those areas of the market.
With that said, let's take a quick look at what I'm seeing.
Logistics and package delivery services provider $UPS got caught in the volatility-triggered downdraft of late January and early February of this year. It has spent the remaining part of the year forming a base and is now showing signs of filling the yawning earnings gap from February 1. We've got a play to take advantage of this gap fill and a likely return to new all-time highs.
During our August Members-Only Conference Call we discussed a lot of the big-picture trends from around the world and in India, but we wanted to do a long post discussing what we're seeing in the mid-cap space. In this post I'll cover what we're seeing in the index itself, as well as get into some of its most actionable components.
This is only the second episode of The Money Game Podcast that I've recorded with Phil and I'm already learning a ton. The idea behind these conversations is to help make us more aware of our bad habits driven by our cognitive behavior flaws. In this episode, Phil and I talk about Loss Aversion and the fact that as investors, and in life, we are motivated more by our fears than we are by our potential to win. This is an incredibly complicated topic so I think it's important to start this conversation early in this Money Game Podcast series.
On May 1st we spoke about seasonality and why the traditional "Sell In May and Go Away talk is a great headline, but not a great investment strategy this year. While most think that seasonality data is useful to position ahead of what are typically weak or strong periods, we find that the real signal occurs when the market does not adhere to its historical patterns. Now that we're a bit more than half way through the seasonally weak May-October period, we thought it'd be helpful to look at the market's performance thus far and see what it could possibly mean for the rest of the year.
Excuse my cheeky blog post title -- we're bullish on United Technologies $UTX.
Consistent with our bullish stance on US equities over the near term, we continue to want to err on the long side. And we want to be in the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors.
One of those is $UTX and we've got a plan to play for a retest of all-time highs with an eventual breakout to significantly higher levels.
I live in a funny world where I can just write some things on my phone or computer and people all over the world begin commenting on it. These conversations can last for months, even years. Those who know me understand that I try to do my very best everyday to look at the market as nothing but letters and math. It shouldn't matter whether we're long Apple or short soybean futures.
Some assets strike a cord with people and make them feel differently. There is usually a popular figure involved or hot product and sometimes even conspiracy theories. It's fascinating to watch. Gold is definitely one of those. The crazies come out whenever you mention gold, bull or bear doesn't matter. Natural Gas used to be like that 12-15 years ago, but not since it lost 90% of its value over the past decade. This one is the bitcoin of energy.
In options trading, risk management starts with defined risk and ends with position sizing. "Stop Losses" -- if used at all -- center around price action of the underlying and give zero weight to the value of the option(s) itself.
As an options trader, nothing makes me cringe more than hearing about traders "protecting" their open options positions with Stop Loss orders.
The Retail Sector ETF $XRT just made new all-time daily closing highs. I was going to write an extensive piece on how we got here and the lessons we can take away about knowing what we own and exercising professional skepticism when we hear gross generalizations like "retail is dying", but I don't think I even need to make it that complicated.
Not all sectors of the market are glamorous or sexy. And Agribusiness certainly isn't one of the fashionable areas of the stock market. But we're about to wade into our second name here because the opportunities are too good. At the end of the day, we go where the money is -- these are just ticker symbols, right?
Zoetis $ZTS, honestly, is a name I had never heard before. But it has been on my watchlist ever since Tom Bruni blogged about it on All Star Charts last week. I've liked the price action since and think the time is right to take a position.
