Boeing got hit hard in recent months due to trouble with their planes and a grounding of their 737 Max fleet. But here's the real newsflash that we should be paying attention to: Airlines still need new airplanes because humans still want to fly. Of course, we don't really care what the "news" is about stocks we trade. We just follow price and volume action -- both of which are pointing to an opportunity here.
Here is the video from my BNN Bloomberg interview this week. We talk about the implications of a weaker US Dollar, including what that would do to stocks, emerging markets, metals and others. I've been waiting for it all year. But think about it. We've already seen some of the things we would expect to see in a weaker Dollar environment. Gold strong, for example, and an inability for the Euro to go lower. So for me, I think this Dollar fall is just getting started.
A lot of the jokes in my community begin and end with gold bugs. I can't think of any group that has been so wrong for so long. You could have literally been in anything else the past 8 years and made money. It's all good though. What goes around comes around. Gold will have its day again, and I think it could be around the corner.
The US Dollar has been a big focus of ours all year (see here, here and here). The implications of the US Dollar's next move will be felt worldwide. I've been in the camp that the US Dollar Index below 98 is positive for stocks and that a drop in the Dollar will most likely coincide with a rotation into emerging markets and european equities. While the Dollar has remained below 98, it’s been more of a sideways range that anything else. But we may have just seen the beginning of this collapse.
Markets appear to want to move higher. Regardless of our opinions, regardless of our fears, the only thing worth paying attention to is Price. And prices look higher. Heading into summer, let's go on a trip.
One thing we know about all-time highs is that they are not evidence of a downtrend. With near-record pessimism towards stocks recently, it's fun to watch the ones that are breaking out to all-time highs. I'm not really sure what everyone is so angry about, these long bases are slowly breaking out one by one, not breaking down.
Something we've been pointing to all along is that for the major indexes to take out resistance from the past 17 months, we need to see an expansion in participation to the upside. In other words, more stocks, sectors and indexes breaking out to all-time highs. This expansion of breadth is likely to lead and/or coincide with an upside resolution in indexes like the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Global100 Index and many others.
It feels good to be back in the office listening to music and ripping through charts! This is something I love to do. The past few weeks were incredible. I met with a lot of smart people throughout Europe and I'm back with new perspective, new ideas and new friends. You can't put a price tag on those experiences. When people ask me what they should invest in, I can't help but answer with: yourself. Invest in what you're doing and what you're learning. I believe this to be true now more than ever.
One of the things I harp on here is Best Practices. When I make it a habit to engage in best practices in terms of both strategy selection and position management, I put myself in position to win more often.
Best Practices skews odds in my favor. It keeps me from swimming upstream against volatility currents. It keeps my risk lower. It helps with P/L consistency. And it helps me stick with trades that still have time to play out.
Selling Half is a position management best practice I employ most often when trading straight long calls and long puts. I like to sell half of my position when the value of the position has doubled. It can be very tempting to want to hold your entire position if it quickly runs up and you find yourself sitting on tremendous profits thanks to the leverage inherent in long options. And certainly, there are times when I wished I would've just sat on my hands as I watched a stock continue to fly higher. But for every one of those times I wish I had, there are easily five other times I'm glad I hadn't.
A week ago we outlined two major breakouts in the largest components of the Nifty Infrastructure and Nifty Public Sector Bank Indexes, however, we also outlined the waning upside momentum that remains a problem.
For premium members, we performed a deep dive into the Infrastructure space to provide trade opportunities outside of Larsen & Toubro, so in this post I want to summarize what we saw when performing the same exercise for Nifty Public Sector Bank components.
There are a number of great services for options traders out there that offer smart ideas for premium selling, or Iron Condor trading, or earnings trades -- I'm friends with many of the best practitioners. They are fantastic at what they do and I'm happy to name names. Just ask.
Subscribers to All Star Options come to us for option trade ideas which take advantage of directional edges the All Star Charts research team uncovers through exhaustive technical analysis. We are not beholden to any particular type of strategy, options spread, or timeframe. We simply examine each opportunity on a case-by-case basis and make an informed decision on what we feel is a good way to play a particular situation. We might not always end up picking the "best" way to leverage into a opportunity, but we think over time and over many iterations, our good decisions compound favorably.
Last week I was in London giving a presentation at the local chapter of the CMT Association. We had a great turnout and they asked a lot of really smart questions. I was not surprised at all by the high caliber of attendees, from Analysts to Portfolio Managers and even younger participants eager to learn. It was awesome all around.
Prior to the event I sat down with Alex Spiroglou to talk about how I first got into Technical Analysis and what a normal day at ASC Research looks like. This is the full video of that interview.
I just finished this week's Top 10 Charts Report for Institutional Clients, but I wanted to carve out two Asian Equity Market charts for this post to highlight a tactical opportunity we're seeing in that part of the world.
