In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about how important it is for Transports, Small-caps and Micro-caps to hold above their August lows. This is a major risk barometer for sure. The Dow Jones Transportation Avg held its early June lows and so did the Russell2000 Small-caps. As long as that remains the case, we believe the path of least resistance is higher for US equities. As a confirmation, we're looking for Micro-caps to get back above their early summer lows. This period reminds us a lot of what we saw in 2016 right before a historic rally in Stocks around the world!
The headlines certainly haven't been kind to any stock whose company does business in China. You wouldn't be faulted for being cautious in this space. That said, there is one very familiar name that in spite of it all has continued to hang in there, setting up for what could quite possibly become a headlines grabbing upside move of its own.
Today we're taking a look at an index that often gets ignored. The Value Line Geometric Index is currently flirting with a multi-decade breakout. This is an equally weighted index using a geometric average, so the daily change is closest to the median stock price change. It's a much broader measure of the market vs something like the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
It's my favorite exercise each month. There is nothing else I do throughout my entire process that provides as much value as my Monthly Chart Review. Here's what stood out to me this month:
Let's start with Papa Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nowhere for 20 months. Flat for over a year and a half:
It's that time of the cycle where we begin to evaluate our open positions that are soon expiring. We had a number of September expiration trades that have already closed -- either because their profit target was achieved ($XLB $XLE) or their stop loss level was violated ($AVGO $CSX $HFC $XLY), but we still have four open positions that require our attention as the calendar transitions to September.
We'll talk more about these in our upcoming monthly All Star Options conference call, but I'll give you a head start on our current thinking here:
Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you all for your feedback and participation.
Everyone was on the same page here, waiting for a resolution before getting involved. Sometimes nothing is the best answer, that's why it's one of the choices.
Retail ETF XRT is at an interesting level, so in this post we're gonna take a look at its chart and what the internals are suggesting for the sector in the weeks/months ahead.
