In our Table Of The Week, we highlighted some of the strongest stocks in the S&P 500 right now. We showed statistical evidence that these stocks have not only performed better over the long-run, but they've also suffered smaller drawdowns in the near-term.
Despite remaining skeptical of what is still a bear market rally in our opinion, there are always opportunities on the long side, we just need to pick our spots carefully and respect our risk management levels. In this post, we're going to outline trade setups in what we believe are some of the most robust uptrends still in place.
If the market moves higher from here, these stocks should continue to exhibit leadership. If it rolls over, they should hold up better than the average stock and our risk will be well-defined to ensure minimal losses in the case we're wrong.
If you read our research regularly you may be sick of this by now, so my apologies. But there is a method to our madness. A tried and true repeatable process that allows us to consistently identify the strongest and weakest areas of the market. Any market. While we've focused mainly on US Equities recently, we can apply these same principles to any asset class.
We have continually highlighted the fact that the long-term outperformers are often also the short-term leaders. Why? Because there is empirical evidence to support this and we know it works. I'll be writing an educational post about this soon.
We've also written a lot lately about how one of the main signals we're looking for before turning bullish on stocks is for the percent of NYSE components to break back above 15%. Well, we're still not really close, but with such drastic daily swings in the major indexes, this could change fast so we want to be ready if and when it does.
Earlier this week, I put out a note about what I've been telling friends and family when they come asking. It comes with the territory right? I'm sure many of you are being sought after in similar ways. It makes sense for this environment.
But the truth is, I underestimated just how much this post would resonate with people. So much so, that I figured I'd write a follow up about another popular, yet simple strategy that I learned a long time ago.
To recap, what the Family & Friends post was about, was the percentage of stocks on the NYSE above their 200 day moving average. Historically, it's when we're above 15% and rising that it makes the most sense to own stocks. When we're below that, it's further evidence that stocks are a mess.
A couple of weekends ago, I had the privilege of hosting Chart Summit 2020, an online virtual Technical Analysis conference. We had over 30 presentations, 10,000 attendees and raised a ton of money to help the people who need it most right now. A great part about the whole thing is, not only all the fun we had, but how much we all learned!
Now, $XLI is bumping up against some formidable upside resistance. And with options premiums still elevated, we're going to use them to leverage into a bearish directional bet here.
With that said, if you're a trader taking advantage of this volatility then the following charts are those we'd watch to determine if the recent bounce can continue.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
As long as it continues to pay, being delta-neutral short in this environment feels like the right move for me. We've already had some of our May positions hit our profit targets. But there is still meat on the bone for more short premium plays into May expiration.
We're in that part of the cycle where friends from high school are calling me to ask about the market and family members I've never spoken to about the markets are now interested. It's funny what a little volatility can do to peak people's interests.
Anyway, these calls are coming early and often. Many of you in a similar position to me are probably having the same experience.
Today, I thought I'd just write a quick post about what I'm telling my loved ones when they ask.
First of all, I definitely stress that not having a plan is the first problem. This shouldn't be the time to try and figure out what to do. This is when stress levels are elevated and when we're most vulnerable to make irrational decisions. I try to remind them of this, but they don't care. They never do.
So moving on, the old, "JC, when do I buy stocks?" question keeps coming back. It's fair. Everyone wants to know.
In this post, we want to step back and see what some of the longer-term weekly and monthly charts are suggesting for stocks and the other major asset classes.
Here's the Nifty 50 which spent the last two years grinding slightly higher as momentum diverged negatively. So far this year, prices have fallen 40% and retraced 38.2% of their entire 2001-2019 rally...in three months. From a risk management perspective, bulls need to see 8,000 hold in the Nifty 50 or there is further downside risk towards 6,200.
When markets go through periods of elevated volatility/stress, many market participants look to catch the exact bottom, but a better approach in our view is to buy on the way back up!
The trend for stocks is down. When they do rally, they scream dead-cat bounce. And bonds keep going out at new all-time highs every week. Gold is at its highest prices in 7 years and Interest rates are in free-fall along with bank stocks. What type of environment does this appear like to you? Is it the kind of market where we want to be buying stocks aggressively, or is this the type of market where we want to be smaller, cash heavy and more defensive?
Let's try to figure it out together.
First of all, Industrials historically have the highest correlation with the S&P500 of all the S&P Sectors. This is what that group currently looks like. One of our most basic technical principles is that former support turns into resistance. We call that Polarity. You can see this taking place in this sector index:
