I've caught myself talking more and more about Cryptocurrencies since last Summer.
And there's a reason for that.
We like buying things that are going up in price, and selling (or not buying) the things going down.
That's really it.
You guys who have been around for a while remember me writing about, commenting and informing readers about Bitcoin back in 2016. I was talking about Crypto trading then even more than I am now. In fact, if you knew me back in 2014, I probably sent you some bitcoin as a gift. I was into doing that sort of thing back then.
BUT, in between 2018 and 2020 there wasn't really much to do in that space, so I stayed quiet and focused my efforts and attention elsewhere, like in Technology and Growth stocks for example.
More recently, we've been pounding the table about Bitcoin since last summer and then Ethereum more so throughout 2021.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
China Dictates The Direction Of Many Diversified World Indexes
On a global scale, recent weakness has primarily been isolated to the Asia-Pacfic region. This region has in large part been weighed down by the Large-Cap Growth-heavy Chinese market; while many indices have decisively accelerated to the upside in recent months, China is still painfully below its YTD highs.
From our perspective, given the economic significance of China, we need to see buyers defend this key 45 level in the iShares China Large-Cap ETF. In this sense, the resolution from this level will likely dictate the bias for global markets in the coming weeks and months.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
One major theme that we’re watching closely right now are the growing number of risk assets at or near critical levels or key former highs.
We continue to see a variety of world stock market indexes approach crucial inflection points. As the list keeps getting longer, our cautionary view of the potential for further choppiness in many markets gets stronger.
Where prices resolve from here in major indexes like the MSCI Emerging Markets, EAFE -- and even some major domestic indexes such as the Russell 2000, are about to provide us with some big-time information into the health of global equities and risk-assets in general.
Today, we’re going to look at one of these diversified international indexes that finds itself in this same boat as it approaches its pre-financial crisis record highs.
This week on the podcast I sit down with Meb Faber, Co-Founder, CEO and CIO of Cambia Investments. In addition to his "Day job", as he puts it, Meb has authored 5 investment books, a countless amount of white papers, and is also a very popular follow on Twitter @MebFaber.
This was really fun for me because Meb is an expert at a lot of things that I am just not, like what happens behind the scenes at ETFs, angel investing and academic studies. He brings up some great points about providing strategies that work, but that people also want/need.
He has some strong opinions about share buy backs instead of distributing dividends, learning through acting and participating, and how lucky him and I are that we took the CMT decades ago when it was a lot easier than it is today!
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Are Softs finally showing signs of life?
Base Metals, Grains, and even Energy have posted strong rallies over the last year. Yet the Softs -- Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, and Sugar -- have continued to struggle below overhead supply.
But we’re seeing all the traditional signs of a structural trend reversal from this lagging group right now.
Let’s take a closer look at Coffee futures to pinpoint why we believe this bear-to-bull trend change is underway…
These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday May 3rd @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
The new high list on any given day has been unremarkable of late. So far in 2021, the most S&P 500 stocks making new highs on any given day has been 135 (27% of the index). The average for 2021 is closer to 50. Despite these lackluster daily readings more than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 have made new highs at some point in the past two weeks. Continued expansion in the number of stocks that have been making new highs reflects healthy broad market support.
We laid out our thesis and the key level we're watching to potentially prove it wrong... That is and has been 1.70 in the Russell Large Cap Growth vs Value ratio.
Once again this month, I’m going to share info on positions that were closed or managed in the month of April. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all exited in accordance with the plan as laid out.
As we head towards May expiration, we only have one position remaining with May options.
It's been well documented that Gold is the biggest loser of the Commodity space. Every single commodity is doing well in this environment except for Gold.
Perhaps this proves what many people have been telling me my whole career, "Gold is a currency JC, not a commodity!"
And maybe that's true. Who am I to judge?
But if you do consider it a currency, it's still one of the ones no wants this year:
You always hear me talking about how we shouldn't look at Monthly Candlesticks (or any candlestick) until it's completed.
In other words, don't draw conclusions about Weekly candlesticks on Tuesday. Don't make decisions based on Daily candlesticks at 10:30AM. And most certainly do not dissect a monthly candlestick early in the month.
BUT, I have a wedding to go to tomorrow and leaving the house around 2 o'clock, a couple hours before markets close for the month of April.
You no there's no way I can wait until I get back on Sunday to take a peek. Let's be serious. It's like Christmas for me every month when I get to unwrap all the new monthly charts.
