The Bitcoin halving has come and gone, and my perspective on it remains unchanged: it was a non-event. Contrary to expectations based on previous cycles, this halving had little impact on Bitcoin's trajectory, which appears more influenced by broader market liquidity conditions. While some may argue for its significance, any effect on the market seems to stem mainly from sentiment rather than fundamental changes in supply or demand.

One sentiment dynamic worth noting is the classic pattern of "buying the rumor, selling the news." However, in the case of the halving, we've witnessed a reversal of this trend. Investors preemptively adjusted their positions leading up to the event, particularly in Bitcoin mining stocks, anticipating the halving's impact on revenues. Surprisingly, instead of selling off after the halving, there has been a notable increase in buying activity, reflecting a shift in sentiment.

This behavior aligns with a fundamental aspect of human psychology: the aversion to uncertainty. Similarly, investors prefer to act when outcomes seem more predictable, hence the recent surge in buying activity post-halving.

This is one of the biggest questions we want to ask ourselves right now.

How many ounces of Silver does it take to buy just 1oz of Gold?

The answer is that it's currently too many.

Here is the Ratio between Gold and Silver, overlaid with a 200-week moving average just to smooth out the data better.

These cookies were made by a member of my Trader’s Meetup group. She brought them to our gathering last night and made plenty to share with everyone.

Where else can one bring cookies with Japanese candlesticks and receive a rousing ovation from all in attendance?

This is how you know you’re with your people.

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XLB position into June.
3. Exited GLD campaign.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Cormorant Asset Management LP.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of $10.4 million in EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc $EYPT.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are dropping gold and silver like they’re hot.

But don’t let the sellers push you toward the exit.

It might look ugly, but a corrective period following gold’s vertical rally to our initial target sounds about right.

Plus, three of our current long positions – Harmony $HMY, Wheaton $WPM, and Kinross $KGC – posted new 52-week highs Thursday. 

I expect the new highs list to expand as gold and silver work through overhead supply in the coming months.

Instead of sweating today’s selling pressure, I’m placing orders to buy the following two mining stocks on a breakout…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are dropping Gold and Silver like they’re hot.

But don’t let the sellers push you toward the exit.

It might look ugly, but a corrective period following Gold’s vertical rally to our initial target sounds about right. Plus, three of our current long positions – Harmony $HMY, Wheaton $WPM, and Kinross $KGC – posted new 52-week highs Thursday. 

I expect the new highs list to expand as Gold and Silver work through overhead supply in the coming months.

Instead of sweating today’s selling pressure, I’m placing orders to buy the following two mining stocks on a breakout…

First up, Silvercorp Metals $SVM:

I came into today's Flow Show not having much of an appetite for any aggressively bullish bets. But by the show's end, I'm putting on a straight gamble! How the hell did that happen? Watch the video above to find out.

The chart and setup that piqued my interest is this one in Riot Platforms $RIOT:

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled ARKK position into June.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Farhad A. Nanji, founder of MFN Partners Management LP.

Nanji reported an additional purchase of $24 million in RXO Inc $RXO.

As we've discussed here plenty, this year is very different than last year.

Remember in 2023 when breakouts would stick and prices of stocks and ETFs would keep heading higher?

That's not happening these days.

It's actually been the opposite.

The bigger question for me is whether these new trends are here to stay, or if at some point the stock market reverts to those longer underlying uptrends that got us here.

Another question I have is which mining companies are going to lead their groups as metals continue to make new highs.

Here's a good way to view it. This is Gold breaking out of a decade+ long base to new all-time highs, resuming its secular uptrend from the 2000s.