Something we’ve been working on internally is using various 'bottoms-up' tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.
One way we’re doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large - and ultimately mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
Dynamic allocation emphasizes what you own as well as when you buy it
Shifting leadership trends could force portfolio decisions
The active-passive debate has never been really well framed. It's been oversimplified to the point of being meaningless. For example, the shift from actively-managed mutual funds to passive ETF's would seem like a victory for passive proponents. But if investors have moved from buying-and-holding those mutual funds to moving in and out of ETF's, is this really a shift from active to passive?
Seems there has been a lot of talk about the stock market "pausing" or being "due for a correction."
While I see the same things the bears are seeing, I'm also seeing price action in a variety of corners of the market still telling a bullish story. And as we like to say around here: "Only Price Pays" (h/t @alphatrends).
We're also seeing bullish options flow from several "motivated" and "aggressive" traders in a variety of names. Case in point: a software storage name in our most recent Follow the Flow report caught my attention.
In that environment, not only are Cryptocurrencies themselves likely getting slammed across the board, but crypto-related stocks are also going to come under pressure.
Unlike some other crypto and blockchain funds, the Amplify Data Sharing ETF $BLOK does a great job of finding stocks with direct or indirect ties to this still-niche industry.
Back then, we were already leaning toward "NO." Fast forward to today, and it's more like a "NO WAY."
The reason for this is simple. In that post, we explained the line in the sand for our USD/BRICS Index was ~19.
In the few weeks since, this critical level has been violated. The market has spoken, and it's saying we're in for a lower US Dollar relative to BRIC-country currencies.
Key takeaway: Excessive optimism has been slow to unwind and most of our indicators are back to signalling a high risk environment from a sentiment perspective. Individual investors last week showed the fewest bears since January 2018. While complacency abounds, investor risk appetite remains shy of where it was in March, even with the uptick in speculative activity over the last two weeks. Liquidity conditions have been tightening of late and momentum trends are diverging from price trends. While the apple cart has not been upset, the load is perched precariously and one small stumble could send fruit flying in all directions. It’s not a low-risk load on which to ride.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Shifting Leadership?
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge@granthawkridge
Check out our latest Mystery Chart!
What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.
This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.
It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!
The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.
While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…
So, let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
Key Takeaway: US stocks lack momentum while Europe gains strength. Economic recovery moving beyond the US. Bond market not confirming economic & stock market optimism.
The S&P 500 finished last week just three points shy of its highest level on record. Index-level price strength comes with momentum trends rolling over and a domestic breadth backdrop that is not providing confirmation that an upside breakout is imminent. There has been a conspicuous absence of new highs - just last week, the number of stocks making new highs on Friday was below the number making new highs on Tuesday and both of those were well below the early-May peak in new highs. We are also not seeing an expansion in new lows at this point. Rather this muddied and mixed environment is more consistent with a digestive phase than sustained deterioration.
