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[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

January 17, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

  • Our macro universe was flat this week as 53% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.06%.
  • Oil $CL was the winner this week, closing with a 6.24% gain.
  • The biggest loser was Dow Jones Transports $DJT, with a weekly loss of -2.24%.
  • There was a 4% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 55%.
  • 30% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, 17% made new 13...

Waiting Patiently

January 17, 2022

Over the last few weeks, our patient approach to the market following December's volatility has continued to pay off.

In last week's report, we outlined how we're viewing this recent dip as yet another low-conviction dip-buy, and why we anticipate messy and whipsaw-prone price action before a tradable bottom is found.

There's little to update on since that report.

Spot flows have been neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral. We need to see demand come in from investors to form a tradable bottom. The market appears to be in oversold conditions, making this a logical place for this to happen.

Elevated leverage in the derivative markets has made futures the dominant force on price action. There are early signs of a short squeeze developing, but we need to see investor demand support it.

Apart from a few exceptions, we're sitting out most of the action in the alts for now.

[Premium] Trade Of The Week

January 17, 2022

The market has been different over the past two weeks compared to the past two months. We're seeing a resumption in trend in several sectors and today Fertilizers are in focus.

Let's take a look at the trade for this week!

Small-caps Did Great Last Year

January 17, 2022

Some people think that Small-cap stocks underperformed last year.

But those are probably the ones left holding the bag in small-cap growth stocks.

You see, Small-cap Value stocks did great!

One for the record books, in fact.

All Star Charts Premium

[Premium] Q1 2022 Playbook

January 16, 2022

This is our ASC Research Q1 2022 Playbook.

With the current market environment giving us many mixed messages, what better time to dive in and see what's happening underneath the surface?

  • Stocks (International & U.S.)
  • U.S. Sectors & Industries
  • Market Breadth & Sentiment
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • Intermarket Analysis
  • Crypto Currencies
  • New Trade Ideas
  • Overall Strategy

It's Your Growth Problem, Not Mine

January 15, 2022

Have you noticed the sense of entitlement from investors left holding the bag in these growth stocks?

Why is that our problem?

The rest of the planet doesn't care about your obsession with U.S. growth stocks. It's a much bigger world out there.

Oh, you fell for that narrative about a female rock star portfolio manager?

Too bad.

Oh, you decided to buy stocks that historically do poorly in rising rate environments, during a rising rate environment?

Too bad.

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Commodities Turn Up the Heat

January 14, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities are making a fresh leg higher, and energy is leading the way.

Crude oil is back above our risk level around 76. And the energy-heavy CRB Index is at its highest level in more than seven years.

But it’s not just energy contracts that are working right now. We’re seeing strength across all areas of the commodity complex.

This broadening participation is evident in our equal-weight commodity index, which just hit new highs after consolidating for the past two quarters.

This chart shows the CRB Index and our equal-weight index side by side:

Both are printing new highs after some consolidation and corrective action last year. You can see the bullish continuation pattern very clearly in the equal-weight index.

Also, notice how both of these charts are sporting strong...

All Star Charts Premium

The Hall of Famers (01-14-2022)

January 14, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

And here’s how we arrived at it:

  • Filter out any stocks that are below their May 10, 2021 high, which is when new...