Bitcoin's now on the cusp of losing this critical 30k level we've been hammering the table on for the last month.

As it stands, there is nothing attractive on the long side right now:

We often preach to wait for your perfect pitch. That is, to trade well, not often, when the competitive edge is in your favor.

We took a few shots on the long side where the risk-versus-reward was in our favor. But the real winning trade has been cash.

If this isn't the best example of a "go fishing" market, I'm not sure what is...

Along with Bitcoin, here's our Top 5 Crypto index pushing against this critical 100 level.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

This is the video recording of the July 2021 Conference Call.

• Defensive sectors are perking up on an absolute and relative basis. Utilities, Consumer Staples and Real Estate were all positive last week (Staples even made a new high) and they occupy the top three spots in our short-term relative strength rankings. Staples and Utilities are still longer-term relative strength laggards.
• Real Estate remains the top-ranked sector (and is an industry group leader) across the size spectrum.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players only.

Traders woke up Monday morning to a little reminder that volatility happens.

It certainly wasn't a calamity, but it was a larger gap down opening than we've seen in a while, following an ugly close on Friday which certainly has put some traders on edge.

When these types of conditions arise, we often see implied volatility priced into options rise to meet these increasing levels of fear. And today is no exception. On days like today, I like to peruse the list of active ETFs and see if any elevated implied volatilities are offering up a good income trade candidate.

The one that tops my list also has a nice risk management level we can lean against.

You often hear in the stock market that "Cash is King."

Of course, in the world of Crypto and DeFi, it could be said that "Tether is King".

There's a lot of big players in other asset classes, that as part of their mandate, can't sit in cash. The majority of investors, particularly in this space, do have that option. So why not use it?

You’re going to see a lot of the crypto community advise against cash. “Market sell-offs are an opportunity to buy more at lower levels”, they say. “You’re not disciplined or smart enough to get back in”, they preach. "Just HODL and diamond hands, bro".

It’s all based on this meme that the market always goes up. I guess if you trust data based on the tiny sample sizes that we have in this young asset class, you’ll believe anything.

But ultimately, the point of the matter is that there's no real directional bias right now.

Market tops are a process. They just don't happen overnight like the headlines would often have you believe.

You're seeing stuff like this today: "Dow futures tumble 300 points on worries over rising COVID-19 cases"

And people actually believe it. Heck, even the headline writer probably believes it.

But if you've been following along here, where we track the actual facts, stocks peaked back in February, and that was confirmed in March. 

The Nasdaq new highs list peaked on February 8th. And the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line peaked the very next day on February 9th.

That same week US Small-caps and Micro-caps decided to stop going up as well: 

We've been seeing some strength in the Realty sector over the past couple of weeks. So this week we're taking a look at a long setup in Realty itself.

Let's see what we have today.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

From Failed Moves Come Fast Moves

Markets have been unequivocally choppy. Breakouts are failing, new highs are dwindling, and it’s becoming more challenging to find trending opportunities. Last week, we discussed how Semiconductors failed to breakout, and asked whether its peer industries would follow suit. Well, we have our answer now… One of the strongest industry groups in the last two months, Internet, just printed a failed breakout at its February highs. Software looks frighteningly similar.

Digging into some of the components, Amazon, the largest weighting of the group, is in the process of retesting its September 2020 highs of 3550. And to compare the industry group to one of its peers, Semiconductors have also put in a failed breakout.