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[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

August 2, 2021

Key Takeaway: Indexes chopping higher, breadth chopping lower. Commodities leading the pack in 2021. Bonds not fearing inflation.

 

  • Health Care made a new high last week and that helped fuel its rise in our relative strength rankings (up to the fourth spot and into the leadership group). Energy and Materials also ticked higher in the rankings, while Consumer Discretionary fell three spots.
  • Despite an overall theme of large-cap strength, the industry group heat map shows deteriorating conditions across sizes for the Energy and Banks groups.

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The Minor Leaguers (08-02-2021)

August 2, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

August 2, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

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[Options Premium] Your Grandfather's Stock Might Be Set To Run

August 2, 2021

There's a reason long-time investors are invested in low volatility household names that pay steady dividends: because over the long run, they work! The steady dividends and low volatility can be counted on to take care of us in retirement. This is a lesson I've been trying to teach my 7-year old Son. We created a small account for him and we're teaching him the power of investing in what you know (or in our case, in companies we spend money on as a family) and in companies that pay dividends which teaches the power of compounding.

One of those names we're invested in is also now showing up on All Star Charts momentum scans and may be set to accelerate its price price action.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

August 2, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Island Reversals And Interest Rates

One of the biggest things the bears have going for them right now is the fact that the 10-Year Yield is trapped beneath the critical 1.40% level. As long as that remains the case, the trend is lower for rates, and higher for US Treasuries. But we want to stay keenly aware of any signs of a trend reversal as we continue to see a barrage of mixed signals when it comes to risk appetite around the globe.

All Star Charts Crypto

Using AVWAP to Identify Crypto's Leaders

August 2, 2021

Regardless of the market environment, we always want to be pushing our bets on secular leaders.

The most effective way of positioning ourselves with the strongest (or weakest) names is through relative strength analysis - by simply comparing names to their counterparts.

So before we dive into all some of the names we're buying, let's address where this space finds itself, and what we're anticipating in the coming weeks and months.

 

[Premium] Trade Of The Week

August 2, 2021

Today we're going to take a look at a long setup in the Chemicals space. This stock has broken out of a big base, and is demanding attention!

Let's take a look at this name.

Metal Stocks that look Ready to Shine

August 2, 2021

The Nifty Metals Index is now trading at new all-time highs. At a time like this, it becomes crucial to identify the constituents that are displaying strength.

Let's take a look at some of the names in the Metal Index that are at interesting levels.

After a pause of two months, the Metals Index has broken out above its prior resistance and looks good for a dash ahead! New all-time highs come at the back of participation from the index constituents.

So which names are we looking at in the weeks and months ahead?

First up, is Hindalco.

Hindalco featured in our Trade Ideas pretty often in the first quarter. After a brief pause, the stock looks ready to rally with the break out above the level of 407. The indicator has continuously displayed strength and has been hovering around the bullish regime.

With the move above 407, the stock is trading at an all-time high!

We are bullish above the level of 407, with a target near 606.

Click on the chart to zoom in.

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How Bad Can Things Be?

August 1, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

A major theme we've been hitting on in recent months is that we've reverted to an equity market landscape dominated by US Large-Cap Growth stocks. 

So we know that's where the strength has been. But up until March-May of this year, these relative trends had actually been favoring Small-Caps and Value, and even other parts of the world over the US.

So was this just a counter-trend rally, or the beginning of a sustainable rotation? The real answer is it depends where you look and how you look at it.

But we are definitely seeing some developments that suggest there could be a rotation back in favor of value-oriented and cyclical stocks in the near future.

This becomes particularly clear when we look at the relative trends of some of these groups vs the S&P. And if we see these industry groups break out on an absolute basis - which many of them already are - this could be the extra juice needed for a true relative trend reversal that would put value back in the driver seat.