Key Takeaway: The bulls came out expecting strength but were served a healthy dose of volatility. What on paper is a historically favorable season has turned out to be quite the opposite. New highs quickly fell to the wayside and into the rearview mirror as participation crumbled beneath the surface. In the wake, investor optimism is now accompanied by a sobering caution. The need for repair beneath the surfaces is great for both domestic and international equities, and is necessary to re-build investor confidence. For now, there are no significant signs of pessimism emerging. But volatility and pessimism can be dangerous dancing partners, each leading the other to the edge of the dance floor.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Investors’ Love Of Equities Undiminished
Plenty of stocks continue to show relative strength through the recent volatility. We still want to be buying these leaders.
And plenty of stocks continue to underperform, having already violated their year-to-date ranges to the downside. Those are the names we want to be looking at to short.
But most stocks are simply in "no-man's land" right now.
Some were rejected at their year-to-date highs. Others broke out and quickly failed. It doesn't matter how they got there. What matters is they're now "back in the box" and facing the very same overhead supply levels they've faced for much of 2021.
It looked as if markets were making progress earlier this month. But it turns out most of these new highs were -- dare I say --transitory?
Let's take a look at financials, using the group as a case study for how we want to approach all the range-bound patterns we see out there.
As we've demonstrated, investors' on-chain buying regime remains intact, so, when these headwinds from traditional markets ease, the bias looks to be higher for Bitcoin and the overall asset class looking out on an intermediate to long-term horizon.
But, until that happens, we anticipate some more choppy action in the near term.
We publish our thoughts on traditional markets every day, but let's quickly summarize a handful of key indexes we're watching right now.
I got all excited when Russell 2000 -- as measured by $IWM -- broke higher out of the 8-9 month range back in early November. To me, that felt like a big sign that stocks on the whole were about to go on a big bullish run into year-end.
Well, the sad trombone has been played and the breakout was short-lived. And as you can see from this chart, $IWM in recent weeks has completely retraced the breakout and has fallen right back into the middle of the previous range:
Man, what a letdown --- for the bulls.
But us options traders over here smell an opportunity!
The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
As we near the close of another month, crude oil is once again front and center.
At the end of October, black gold was ripping to new seven-year highs while interest rates rose and cyclical stocks kicked back into gear.
Today, this picture has dramatically changed.
Crude oil is currently about 20% off its highs, as prices have collapsed back below our risk level.
Crude dropped $10 during last Friday’s volatile session and continues to slide lower this week. Just look at this bearish candlestick on the monthly chart:
With volatility on the rise and increased evidence of fissures beneath the surface of the market, we have reduced equity exposure in our Tactical Opportunity portfolio. The deterioration at this point has not been significant enough to warrant reducing equity exposure in our Cyclical portfolio, though we have made some changes there as well to stay in harmony with the relative leadership trends we are seeing both in the US and globally.
For every asset you own, it's essential to understand its drivers.
We do this all the time when looking at the components of ETFs and funds and evaluating intermarket correlations, and crypto shouldn't be any different.
As we outlined in yesterday's note, the recently observed increased correlation between Bitcoin and legacy markets is something to be mindful of in the near term.
Volatility in the macro environment is likely to be a headwind for most major crypto assets in the coming weeks.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Key Takeaway: Cyclical rally needs to prove its strength. New lows and expanding downside volume suggests more fissures beneath the surface. Focus on Value Line Geometric Index for evidence that downside risks are building.
