Just to be clear, I'm no expert when it comes to NFTs.
Later this week I'll publish the latest podcast with Justin Paterno, Portfolio Manager of the new NFT fund by OSPREY that I'm an investor in.
But today I wanted to share some of my recent experiences with the new STEPN App and NFT.
I'm earning GST Coin to go running. In fact I've made about $150 worth of this Utility Coin in the past 3 days alone. That's one hundred fifty United States Dollars!
You can see the price of the STEPN coin here since the new issue last month:
Energy names have been working for us. So there's no reason to turn off the spigot just yet. Of course, mindful of our exposure in energy-related sectors already, I want to try to keep any additional risk exposure as limited as possible.
With this in mind, today's play is a bullish bet that we think will take some time to materialize. And we're going to use that assumption to help us lever into a trend at a cheaper cost of participation using a calendar spread.
In conjunction with the All Star Charts quarterly playbook, this week's report is a copy of the crypto note we'll be attaching to the playbook.
It covers the themes we're monitoring, a few trades we like taking, and what we anticipate for the asset class moving into the second quarter.
Hope you had a great long weekend.
Cheers guys.
As we move into the second quarter, we leave behind a messy period in the world of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin ended the first quarter slightly lower while the entire asset class, measured by the total market capitalization, experienced a 9% loss. In this period, the new highs list among the alts has been ominously quiet as participation waned.
There’s been little in the way of market action in this environment. Staying on the sidelines in elevated stablecoin positions has been rewarded, while those who overtraded and bought into breakouts were punished.
We’ll lead off today with an update on the big activist story we’re all paying attention to.
After meeting last week to discuss Elon Musk’s takeover offer, Twitter’s $TWTR board announced the adoption of a “poison pill” that makes it economically untenable for Musk to acquire more than 15% of outstanding shares.
It’s also being rumored that Musk is considering taking on partners for his bid for the company.
When it comes to the bond market, Larry is the guy I want to talk to. And with Bonds getting off to their worst start to a year, maybe ever, what better time than the present to dive into the fixed income markets?
While I had him, we also discussed the equities markets, commodities, metals and Crypto.
I caught the last 30 minutes-ish of the live Elon Musk interview on TED Talks Thursday morning and I found it riveting. Sadly, I missed most of the discussion regarding his recent splashes with Twitter.
Picking up when I did, there were other things I should’ve been doing (writing this note, for example), but I was immediately hooked. I couldn’t peel myself away from it.
It felt like a real earnest look into the mind of a savant.
Say what you will about Elon Musk the Man, Elon Musk the Innovator, Elon Musk the Political Animal, or Elon Musk the Podcaster and Tweeter. I’m not here to pass any judgments on who he is, what he stands for, or how he accomplishes his aims.
What stood out for me during the chat was the laser focus he has on things he puts his mind to.
When he mentioned that he understands deeply how EVERY piece of his cars are made and assembled, and when he uttered that there is nobody on Planet Earth currently living who knows more about manufacturing then him, I believed him. He wasn’t trying to impress us with this information. He was saying it matter-of-factly.
I read a book recently that got into the fact that any and all edges in trading, no matter how robust, degrade over time.
The author listed a variety of reasons, but the biggest one that caught my attention is that if the edge is so good, then the simple act of making a bunch of money exploiting this edge will eventually get discovered.
This is an incestuous business where people talk. Brokers talk to their clients. Clients talk to their industry contacts. Word gets around about so and so making all kinds of money. And then copycat traders act and move in to also take advantage of said edge. And this crowding in will work to eventually minimize or trivialize the edge.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Commodities are off to another record year -- and it’s only April!
Crude oil and friends are leading the charge as the energy-heavy CRB Index is up 34% year to date.
Oil ripped above 100 in February and has been in a corrective phase since. The energy complex remains red-hot though, with natural gas futures breaking to fresh 13-year highs this week.
While crude oil finds its footing, its derivatives -- heating oil and gasoline, are coiling just beneath all-time highs and gearing up for some massive base breakouts.
We’re also seeing some bullish data points for the broader oil and gas industry as crack spreads are expanding and signaling a healthy demand for black gold. This bodes particularly well for oil refiners.
All of this price behavior is what we like to call rotation.
It's an essential characteristic of any real bull market, and it’s exactly what we’re seeing from commodities these days.
