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ASC Mastermind

ASC Mastermind Lab: How to measure market sentiment with Grant Hawkridge

Below is the 9th ASC Mastermind  Lab. In this video, I'm joined by Grant Hawkridge, one of our analysts at All Star Charts and a specialist in understanding market sentiment. 

How do we know when investors are "bullish" or "bearish"? Price, for one. But there are also several key indicators that we use to measure investor sentiment in addition to price alone. And understanding these indicators, how they work, and when to use them, is critical in getting a complete picture of the market. 

Enjoy this Mastermind Lab. 

 

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/27/24

November 27, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to IBB position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (11-27-2024)

November 27, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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But I was promised a recession...

November 27, 2024

Did it feel as good for you as it did for me?

The stock market is on fire and everyone is making money.

But are we making enough money, considering just how good things have been?

Let me rewind for a second. Do you remember all the promises about a recession that was definitely coming? The yield curve. The money printing. Trump is literally Hitler???

We were even told that we would get a credit crisis of some kind. Maybe even another black Monday...

But all we got instead was one of the greatest years for the stock market in American history.

Here's a chart from our pals over at Goldman Sachs showing this year's performance compared to all the other years over the past century.

It's hard to find a better year for investors:

 

And this is a good lesson for all of us, myself included.

Even though we've been pounding the table this entire bull market to buy stocks and be as aggressive as possible, it's a nice reminder that we should absolutely focus on price behavior, particularly when sentiment is this far removed from reality.

While stocks have been putting up historic returns, the gloom...

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Bull Market Characteristics

November 27, 2024

When it comes to how we approach markets, the first thing we want to do is identify which type of market environment we're in.

Then, and only then, can we decide which tools and strategies are best for that type of environment.

We did that today during our LIVE Breakout Multiplier Event. Watch the Replay here.

For example, your bear market strategies are probably not going to be great during a bull market. Your trend following strategies are probably not going to work too well in rangebound markets. Your...

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[Options] Block? Square? Whatever. It's Bullish.

November 26, 2024

In today's Flow Show, I flew solo. But have no fear, I have a great idea to work with that was brought to me by the All Star Options community and endorsed by the analysts here at All Star Charts.

You can watch the full episode here:

 

 

Earlier in the day, Steve and I were together on a live twitter/X spaces and we were talking about the strength we're seeing in the payments space. Not just the Visas and Mastercards, but the Paypals, Venmos, and Squares.

Universally, we liked the $SQ chart. And my ASO community likes it too.

So here's the weekly $SQ chart that I shared in the show:

 

There's a lot of room for price action to go to retrace to all-time highs. But we don't need it to get there to earn a nice profit. If we only get halfway there, we can still win big.

Here's the Play:

I like buying $SQ June 125 calls for an approximately $4.50 net debit. With options volatility relatively cheap in this name, these calls are rather affordable in volatility terms.

During the show, I considered possibly selling some nearer-term calls against this position to lower my cost basis, but I've since decided...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/26/24

November 26, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in ARKK.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. Closed ITB for a profit.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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Time To Buy Solar

November 26, 2024

A funny thing happened after Donald Trump won the U.S. Election by a landslide....

Everyone just assumed it would be bad for Solar stocks.

And it was, for a moment anyway...

But when everyone just assumes a specific outcome, and everyone is already positioned for that, we love to take the other side as that positioning unwinds.

Remember, it's not the fundamentals that drive asset prices. It's positioning, and the unwinds in extreme positioning that moves asset prices the most violently.

The latest example of this market anomaly is in Solar. Notice how during this sell-off, Momentum never reached oversold conditions. 

 

Oversold conditions are characteristics of downtrends. 

Momentum is suggesting that Solar is NOT in one of those...

And when you look at the largest component of the Solar Index, the set up is so clean. 

$FSLR has retraced slightly more than 61.8% of the entire rally this year...

 

If First Solar can recover here and get back into the 200s, then the squeeze is on.

And when you have a setup like this, the goal is to make as much money as possible.

"Get while the...

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The Short Report (11-26-2024)

November 26, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

...
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[Weekly Gold Rush] Has This Ratio Bottomed?

November 25, 2024

*BREAKING NEWS* $BTC printing fresh all-time highs priced in every fiat currency is NOT bearish for gold.

We recently recorded a video with our in-house crypto analyst, Louis Sykes, to discuss the connections between bitcoin and gold

The relationship isn't perfect, but it would be irresponsible of us as investors to ignore the correlation between 2 of the most significant hard-money assets in the world.

Last month, we discussed the correlation between digital and physical gold becoming positive again. 

Before we knew it, $BTC had resolved its base and followed gold to new all-time highs.

This suggests to us the bull market is still young: