It’s the day after the FOMC announcement, and markets are mixed. They’ve already moved past yesterday’s 75-basis-point hike and are now in the process of pricing in all available data, including the prospects of future Fed policy.
Instead of getting caught up in the recession chatter and what the Fed might do next, let’s focus on one undeniable fact: The 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX is still at a key inflection point.
I know we’ve been obnoxious about the US dollar and rates. They continue to be two of the most important charts out there. That’s the environment we’re in – plain and simple.
And with the 10-year yield stuck just below a critical shelf of former highs, there’s no better time to remind ourselves of some classic intermarket relationships.
Here’s a chart of the US 10-year yield overlaid with the Metals and Mining ETF $XME with the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK in the lower pane:
It's not the first thing I do in the morning (a cup of coffee and some devotional time take precedence) but early each day, I am out in the garden. Hose in hand, I water what needs to be watered. I'm also observing – noticing weeds, identifying what needs to be propped up or redirected, and making a mental note of what is ripe and ready to be picked.
Right now, it's cucumbers – a lot of them. I'm giving them away as fast as I can. But I still had to pickle a bunch this past weekend (Capital Preservation in investing parlance). They are almost hydra-like this time of year. Eat one and there are three more ready to be picked.
In high school, I wasn't into sports, drinking, or other normal teenage shenanigans.
As strange as it may seem, I was super passionate about technical analysis. I would use my English periods and lunch times learning fixated on what these charts meant, reading countless blogs, and spending hours learning what technical analysis was on Investopedia.
It's hilarious looking back on it now, but I vividly remember my 16th birthday. I convinced my Dad to buy me a flight to Auckland, so I could go to an investing seminar held by a well-known Kiwi entrepreneur, Jamie Beaton.
What teenager wants tickets for an investing seminar for their 16th birthday?
One story you'll hear often from technicians is that technical analysis opened up finance to them in an intuitive way. No longer were they basing their decisions on arbitrary discounted cash flow models or unreliable accounting figures.
Instead, they were following the only driver that moves markets -- money flow.
As I've grown over the years, I've come to a similar conclusion.
We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.
All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.
Key Takeaway: In recent weeks, the bulls have made their presence known after hiding in the shadows for most of the year. But as they inch their way forward, they will need assurance from the market that they’re moving in the right direction. So far, any signs of positive feedback have been lacking. New lows remain greater than new highs (for 35 weeks and counting). And there is an absence of strength among global markets, although they have stopped going down. The market needs to turn it up in regards to price and participation if the bulls are to prove more than a bunch of wallflowers.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: How Do We Keep The Bulls On Dance Floor?
There's no denying the fact that it's been a rough time being a crypto investor lately.
From our work, crypto market participants are closely approaching their maximum pain thresholds.
In real terms, losses realized on-chain reached their highest values going back to 2011. In nominal terms, Bitcoin holders realized the most amount of losses in USD terms in crypto's entire history.
We've gone from 95% of all market participants holding unrealized profits to a measly 50% in the space of a few short quarters.
This is, by most measures, one of the most severe bear markets by loss realization, capital leaving the ecosystem, and contagion among even the largest and most sophisticated of players.
Despite this destruction of wealth, it's important to be grateful for our losses.
