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The Hall of Famers (08-26-2022)

August 26, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that, which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

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[Options Premium] Selling Some Shiny Premium

August 26, 2022

"Jackson Hole" has delivered volatility once again. Seems we can always expect fireworks when the bigwigs gather at a luxury resort in the mountains. Must be nice...

We're going to take advantage of some of this volatility by positioning into a delta-neutral credit spread in the highest implied volatility ETF currently on the board.

Let's get to it.

Activist Cevian Buys More ALV

August 26, 2022

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Cevian Capital.

Cevian reported an $11.4 million purchase in Autoliv $ALV, the world’s biggest manufacturer of airbags and seatbelts for cars.

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A Friendly Reminder From the Bond Market

August 25, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Identifying trends is one of the most important jobs of a market technician. Regardless of our time horizon, we have to understand the general direction the market is taking.

It sounds simple, but it’s the foundation of any market thesis.

Once we have the underlying trend nailed down, we can focus on the areas of the market we want to exploit and pinpoint the best tools and strategies to do so.

When I think of the most critical trends to date, my mind immediately goes to interest rates. Rising rates and inflation have been the key drivers for two years now.

Despite some corrective action in recent months, the bond market has been reminding us that we’re still in a rising-rate environment.

Let’s take a look.

First, we have an overlay chart of the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate and the US 10-year yield:

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The Short Report (08-25-2022)

August 25, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as the Hall of Famers, the Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: A Look at the "Why?" Behind a Popular "What?"

August 25, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

During our “Trendlines over Headlines” conversation last week, Patrick Dunuwila and I spent some time discussing seasonal patterns in the stock market. Among the inputs to our cycle composite is the 4-year Presidential Election cycle. The tendency for stocks to make a pre-midterm election low and then see sustained strength in the year between midterms and the Presidential election is well-advertised. The stats around this are pretty amazing. On average, stocks bottomed two months prior to the midterm election and, despite a few close calls, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after every mid-term election since 1950, on average nearly 15% higher.

This is often ascribed to the market’s preference for certainty. When the balance of political power is unknown, stocks weaken. When the outcome of the election becomes more obvious, stocks rally. This is regardless of which party that outcome favors. It’s a plausible story as far as it goes.