From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t let credit spreads fool you. 

High-yield debt hasn’t blown out relative to Treasuries. Regardless, the largest markets in the world are buckling under pressure.

You have to look outside the US and beyond high-yield corporate bonds to see the stress. Here are three cautionary data points to consider: European sovereign spreads, US bond market volatility, and the steep decline in investment-grade bonds.

When you weigh the evidence, it’s clear risks are rising for US markets. 

Let’s look at the charts!

First, here's a look at European sovereign spreads:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Yesterday is seeming more like a one-hit wonder, as the indices dropped hard today.

The $QQQ finally played catch-up to the $SPY and hit a new low.

This is the video recording of the September 29th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

09/29/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The market is enduring a volatile week, finishing out a chaotic month in what has been an unprecedented year.

• Safe havens have offered no safety as cross-asset correlations have turned positive and balanced portfolios are enduring their worst year since the 1930’s.
• This week, underwater explosions have ruptured gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, while a massive hurricane has crossed from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean, leaving a trail of devastation in Cuba and Florida. 
• Stocks are now trading at their lowest level in two years and the British pound has sunk to its lowest level in two centuries.

Dismissing all of this as merely challenging seems trite. Acknowledging the difficulty of the environment helps chart a path for moving forward.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

You see what just a little bit of Dollar weakness does to this market?

I'm telling you. I'm not making this up.

Now here's the thing. Let's remember that extreme volatility IN BOTH DIRECTIONS is commonly found near turning points.

Last time the US Dollar Index had a single day GAIN as large as Friday's was 3/19/20.

Last time the US Dollar Index had a single day LOSS as large as Wednesday's was 3/26/20.

The Dollar Index peaked on 3/20/20. Stocks bottomed the very next trading day on 3/23/20.

Here's a look:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Futures are lower this morning.

Hopefully, we're digesting yesterday's big move in the indices.

For this week's trade, we're Selling the BRKB November 260 Puts Naked

Get the full details, risk management procedures and targets for this trade here:

Just as we’ve been wondering if that was it for Warren Buffett and Occidental Petroleum $OXY, the largest insider buy on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A.

Buffett revealed another purchase in OXY, as he continues to build his position in the energy stock.

Here we are back to the June lows in both the S&P500 and Nasdaq100.

Support held for a few days this week at the same prices that it held 3 months ago:

See what a little dollar weakness can do?

It's hilarious. This little observation is becoming a running gag around here. Because, let's face it, in this tape, a strong dollar has proven to be a significant headwind.

The analysis need not be more complicated than this basic framework.

The simple fact of the matter is that if you're going to make money long equities and cryptocurrencies in the late stages of 2022, you're betting that this dollar strength will ease off.

As long as the dollar remains strong, expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure.

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.