The concept of “Tilt” is often discussed when things have gone awry. It’s usually associated with poor risk management and sloppy trading that has led to larger-than-expected losses.

You can no doubt find endless stories of traders in every timeframe who have gone on tilt and proceeded to wreck their month, their capital, and sometimes even their careers.

We’ve all experienced some degree of this in our own trading. It comes with the territory. It takes a rare human who possesses the mental fortitude to stay completely focused no matter what’s happening to their portfolio. Those people are out there – but they’re hard to find.

The downsides of going on tilt when our trades or strategies aren’t working out are fairly obvious.

But we rarely talk about when we go on tilt with a winning position!

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market did bounce from the lows at $SPX 3,700, but it was lackluster.

In order for this market to head back up hill, the SPX would have to get above 3,750 and hold it for a move to 3,775.

This is the video recording of the November 3rd, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

11/03/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts PLUS Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of  binary decisions, tactical calls and asset allocation models. 

Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help dynamic asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

The Fed announced another 75 basis point rate hike yesterday. The upper range of the Fed Funds rate began the year at 0.25% and is now 4.00%, the highest level since early 2008. In his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell made clear that the Fed is not finished raising rates.

Well, that was fun!

Yesterday we were treated to the latest interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and a speech and Q&A with Fed Chairman Powell that apparently wasn't well received by the market as stocks slid furiously into the closing bell and continued the selloff into this morning.

Where we go from here is anyone's guess. Still, I'd like to take the opportunity to continue taking advantage of consistently elevated options premiums and put on a delta-neutral credit spread in an area of the market where I think some sideways rangebound action may be setting up into the end of the year.

Someone years back decided to convince people who are bad at math that the Nasdaq is a good representation of the stock market.

With every day passes, particularly in 2022, the market continues to prove how silly that whole thing is.

Whatever you need to do to remember it, do not EVER forget:

The NASDAQ is NOT the stock market.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

This is that time again where we try to see through the fog of short-term moves and identify the long-term structure of the market. Every month, this process helps have a clear vision going into the new month. So let's dive in and look at some of these charts!

Risk assets sold off following the latest move by the Federal Open Market Committee to hike interest rates by 75 basis points.

As always, we prioritize how markets price in these events and, ultimately, how they react to the actual print.

That's because the market is a forward-looking discount mechanism; price action reveals a collective expectation of events before they take place.

Rather than focusing on the minutiae of the CPI and/or the workings of the FOMC, we prioritize money flow.

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by the chairman and CEO of American Assets Trust $AAT, Ernest Rady.

Rady reported the purchase of $1.3 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It's anybody's guess where we go from here.

I think Mr. Market was looking for a glimmer of light from our Fed Chair, and that did not happen.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.