From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar is back and on the move.

After falling for four straight months, the US dollar index $DXY is up three days in a row. Whether the near-term dollar strength turns into a more sustained trend is anyone’s guess.

Regardless, risk assets feel the pressure as many areas begin to correct, including precious metals. 

Despite this recent selling pressure, we have clear levels to trade against when it comes to Silver and mining stocks.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market was down but pretty much range-bound today.

It was hard to gain traction on the long side, and I was stopped out of a few names.

The number of stocks making new lows remains negligible. Last week, the number of stocks making new 52-week highs on the NYSE + NASDAQ surpassed a number of prior peaks (Dec 2021, Apr 2022, Nov 2022). It’s now at its highest level since November 2021.

We're already long some domestic semiconductor stocks via options (the trend is working). However, perhaps we've set our sights too close to home.

International stocks have been on a tear recently, showing even greater strength than the U.S. So maybe we should be looking for the strongest stocks, in the strongest sectors, in the strongest countries?

With this in mind, today's trade takes us to Switzerland.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar is back and on the move.

After falling for four straight months, the US dollar index $DXY is up three days in a row. Whether the near-term dollar strength turns into a more sustained trend is anyone’s guess.

Regardless, risk assets feel the pressure as many areas begin to correct, including precious metals. 

Despite this recent selling pressure, we have clear levels to trade against when it comes to Silver and mining stocks.

Before we dive into those critical levels of interest, a friendly reminder…

An overwhelming amount of supply still exists for Gold futures in the 1,924-1,965 zone:

Over the last week, we've seen some mild profit-taking, with Bitcoin and Ethereum chopping around following retests of critical resistance levels.

Our thesis remains that a structural shift has occurred, with the short- and intermediate-term trends now higher.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Both Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and CMLS Holdings LLC filed Form 4s for a combined amount of $40 million in GeneDx Holdings Corp $WGS.

Activist investor and retail industry entrepreneur Ryan Cohen took a stake in Nordstrom $JWN, sending the stock higher by more than 20% Friday.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I mentioned in Friday's Morning Briefing that if $SPY really breaks below 412.88, we can see 408.

SPY traded in that range this morning. Currently, 408 is support.

If we bounce, we can head back up to 411. If not, we can see 405.13.

Stock market bulls have been rewarded over the past 3 months.

And remember, historically these are the best 3 months of the year - November through January.

And then comes the hangover.

Think about those last three months.

Did you see people having a good time?

Were some having a little too much fun?

Would you agree there was some disorderly conduct?

Were participants behaving as if they were under the influence?

You bet.

And this sort of behavior is normal for this time of the year, and the entire 4-year cycle for that matter.

But then comes February - one of the worst months of the year.

"I only trade U.S. Stocks, JC"

"If you can't find a stock in America to buy you're not looking hard enough, JC"

"I live in America, JC"

"I don't know anything about those stocks in other countries, JC"

Trust me, I hear all these things.

Not so much from you guys, as it is my friends and colleagues in the business.

I feel like readers of Allstarcharts know better, and also we have a very global audience.

So the recency bias that oozes out of most American investors, who have gotten accustomed to the U.S. being the best place to be, forgot what it's like when that's not the case.

You're talking about a decade of outperformance, and depending on how you measure it, you can even argue that's it's been a decade and half of U.S. dominance.

But believe it or not, stocks traded before 2011.

The U.S. wasn't always the global leader in equities.

The Value Line Geometric is one of the more underappreciated indexes that we have at our disposal.

The Dow is the OG, the S&P500 is the benchmark and the Nasdaq gets all the girls.

But you know, it's the Value Line Geometric Index that might actually give us the best information.