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Bottom-Fishing for Wheat

September 29, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I need to set the record straight.

Earlier in spring, I wrote a note highlighting wheat’s tendency to lead crude oil at key inflection points.  

While this statement is mostly true, it needs clarification.

Chicago wheat does have a tendency to lead crude oil at significant market tops. But crude leads at critical troughs.

Check out the crude oil overlaid with Chicago wheat futures:

Notice crude bottomed in Q1 of  2009, 2016, and earlier this year. Chicago wheat followed roughly six to nine months later, marking critical turning points in late Q3 of 2009 and 2016.

Will wheat do the same in 2023? 

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International Hall of Famers (09-29-2023)

September 29, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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[Options Premium] Have Bonds Bottomed?

September 29, 2023

Yesterday's trading action in $TLT, the 20-year treasury bond ETF, gives me confidence that it might have been a near-term low.

I'm making the bet that it'll hold for at least a few weeks. And the elevated options premiums here give us ample ammunition to wait it out.

 

Coliseum Capital Raises Its MCFT Stake to 9.28%

September 29, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Coliseum Capital Management.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of roughly $5.3 million in MasterCraft Boat Holdings $MCFT, raising its  ownership stake to 9.28%.

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Junior International Hall of Famers (09-28-2023)

September 28, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let's dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

S&P Tests Key Support

September 28, 2023

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

The stock market has been under duress for the past two months as bears have taken control and driven the major averages to their lowest levels since early June.

Whether you look at the large-cap indexes or the strongest sectors and industry groups, they are all stuck below overhead supply.

And with price action continuing to deteriorate, many of these charts are now carving out potential short-term tops.

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Rising Rates Are the Market’s Golden Thread

September 28, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks and bonds look vulnerable right now. 

US T-bonds are sliding to fresh decade lows. The S&P 500 completed a three-month top last week.  And the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of doing the same. 

Those summer highs are receding into the collective memory bank, replaced by new lows and growing unease. Sellers are out in full force.

But instead of allowing the near-term selling pressure and overall choppy conditions to throw us off balance, let’s focus on the one underlying trend tying this market together…

Rising interest rates!

Check out the commodity-bond ratio overlaid with US 30-year yield $TYX: