From the pits of 19th-century speculation to today’s systematic hedge funds, trend following has remained the ultimate trading edge. Here’s why it works—and why it always will.

For centuries, traders have tried to predict markets—chasing news, studying fundamentals, and searching for a perfect formula to outthink the crowd. Meanwhile, the only strategy that actually worked was the simplest one: Follow the trend.

Nobody wanted to believe it. Trend following felt too passive, too reactive. Human nature prefers action, control, and the illusion of certainty. But markets don’t reward ego. They reward discipline.

Trend following wasn’t born in a lab. It wasn’t a theory crafted by economists. It was a survival mechanism.

In the 1900s, the most powerful traders—Gould, Patten, Cutten, Livermore—moved markets through insider knowledge, manipulation, and sheer size. The only way smaller traders survived was by recognizing the trend and riding the moves made by the big players.

This wasn’t...

There's never a dull moment in the market. It's always something.

The mixed messages are a feature, not a bug.

That's just how it's always been. So it's our job to weigh all the evidence and make the best decisions we can make, knowing full well that we have incomplete information.

Today I want to talk about 2 theories that may or may not be playing out, but it's something I'm thinking about. 

First, is this thing about investor sentiment. How is it possible that individual investors in America are the most bearish they've been since the bottom of the last bear market back in 2022?

I think it's because of what they own.

They're not in China, which is making new 3-year highs. 

They're not in...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Wow what a week to be an investor in stocks.

The broadening of participation all over the world continues. 

Meanwhile, the pessimism is stronger than ever.

I'm noticing the most angry of people are the ones who want stocks to fall because they don't like the Trump and all his buddies. 

But their anger is not the market's concern. If anything, it's just more fuel to drive stocks much higher, which would enrage them even more. 

It's pretty hilarious to watch actually.

Laughing is good for you. But laughing at people who haven't bothered to count and actually see how well stocks are doing, is all the more amusing.

You know, you can dislike Trump, and still recognize how strong this bull market continues to be, and how much stronger it's getting week over week.

Here is one of the most important stock market indexes in the world. I would argue that after the S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq, this one is right there behind it, and arguably right along there with it in the same category of importance.

EFA represents developed markets outside of North America. So think a ton of European stocks, United Kingdom, Japan and...

Today I'm going to share a little trick that I like to use to help put the current market volatility into perspective.

The math is like this. I take the value of the VIX and divide by 16. And that's what the market is pricing in for a normal daily move.

For example, if the VIX is at 24, then I would expect a 1.5% move in the S&P500 each day.

So if the VIX is at 16, then I would expect a 1% move.

If the VIX is at 32, then I would expect a 2% move.

Simple.

Now, many people wonder why it's 16, and that's where we get way above my paygrade. If you don't understand how the math around options works, don't worry. No one else does either.

I'm not even joking. Options math is next level impossible. Just ask any of the best options traders. They'll be the first to tell you.

The 16 number I believe has something to do with the square root of the number of trading days in a year, but I'm confident there's more to it than that.

Also, for you statistics majors, I believe there is technically like a 67% probability of these results, or something along those lines.

So keep in mind that The Rule of 16 is just a back of...

Stock market bulls have been watching the homies like hawks. 

It's a vital industry right now.

Alfonso recently wrote about the Home Construction ETF $ITB breaking to new lows relative to its defensive peer group, the Real Estate ETF $IYR.

He said, "This ratio has historically been a leading indicator for the broader market. During prior cycles, you can see clear divergences where ITB/IYR tops or bottoms ahead of major turns in the S&P 500." 

See the chart for yourself. The data doesn't lie. 

If the equity bull market in the United States is going to continue, this group cannot complete a massive top.

Here's the setup that everyone is watching 👇

As you can see, the iShares U.S. Home Construction Index $ITB has carved out a prolonged potential distribution pattern. 

The index...

Geez, a stock falls back to levels not seen since *gasp! * 5 weeks ago and the implied volatility spikes?

Feels like nervous bulls are getting a little overzealous with their put purchases. Let's fade 'em.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IGV position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...