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Chart Of The Week: Buy High Yield Bonds!

February 29, 2016

With all of the bad news and negative sentiment surrounding the high yield bond market, I think this is a place where we want to be buyers, and no longer sellers. High yield bonds are just a fancy way to refer to "Junk bonds". At the end of the day, high yield is just that: high yield, because you're getting paid a higher return for the risk you're taking by owning junk. Both on their own and relative to the safe-haven U.S. Treasury Bonds, these things have been destroyed over the last few years.

Moving forward

Charts Don't Actually Say Anything!

February 26, 2016

How often do we hear one person ask another, “So what are the charts telling you?”, or “What does that chart say?”. Think about that. Charts don’t actually say anything at all. They’re charts. Charts don’t speak. So why do so many people want to know what the charts are saying?

Technical analysis is the study of the behavior of the market and market participants. The most important tool that we have as technicians is price. Movements in the price of an asset represent the changes in equilibrium between supply and demand. It just so happens that the best way to visualize these changes in equilibrium is in chart form. This is why many technicians prefer to be chartists. It is not necessary for a technician to use a chart

BNN Appearance: Sometimes The Risk/Reward Is In Your Favor

February 25, 2016

This week I was running up and down the east coast in meetings and conferences. With some of the free time I had left, I sat down with a few of my favorite financial journalists to rap about the markets. On Monday afternoon I was on Bloomberg TV and Tuesday I was on the Business News Network with Frances Horodelski. I don't have as much time to do TV like I used to in the past, so it was a fun experience for sure.

Here is the BNN interview in full:

Bloomberg TV Appearance: Emerging Markets, Gold Miners & Energy

February 22, 2016

On Monday afternoon I was over at the Bloomberg headquarters in New York City to discuss markets with Joe Weisenthal, Alix Steel and Scarlet Fu. Every time I've been on a guest on this show I've had pretty much nothing but bad news to share as far as the stock market is concerned. In January, all of our downside objectives were achieved and I've really changed my tune. I think this strength we've seen in stocks over the past month continues, particularly the relative strength in emerging markets.

Here is the video in full:

Is It Time To Get Short The Chunnel?

February 22, 2016

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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After rallying more than 13% over the past three months, EUR/GBP looks to be setting up on the short side.

Structurally this market has been in a downtrend since 2009, with selling accelerating further in late 2014 as support near .7750 failed to hold. After consolidating above .6930-.70 throughout the majority of 2015, prices moved to new highs and rallied back into broken support.

Was That A Monster Failed Breakdown In Crude Oil?

February 19, 2016

You guys who know me already understand why it is that I am constantly looking for whipsaws. The best risk vs reward opportunities are sparked from such events. We often refer to whipsaws as failed breakdowns or failed breakouts depending on the direction of the underlying trend. From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction, and that's why we look for them.

The idea behind support and resistance is that when markets meets resistance, or a level where supply exceeds demand, prices continue to fall from that price until eventually it breaks through it. Sometimes it tests resistance once or twice and sometimes 3 - 4 times, but the idea behind it remains the same. Once resistance has been broken

Cotton Prices To Stay Soft

February 18, 2016

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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With Cotton futures nearly 75% off their 2011 highs, market participants may be looking for a reason to get long this market. The weight of evidence however, suggests there is likely another 15% downside ahead.

The daily chart spanning back nine years shows prices topping and subsequently beginning a downtrend in early 2011. Over the past eighteen months prices have consolidated as they attempted to break back above the 2012 lows and downtrend line from the 2011 highs. Despite its efforts, Cotton could not close back above the confluence of resistance at 68 and is now threatening to break through the lower end of the 57-68 range.

From a structural perspective the next logical area

[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment

February 17, 2016

[hide_from accesslevel="premium"]In this week's members-only letter we discuss the following topics:

  • Why Emerging Markets Are Outperforming U.S. Stocks
  • Did you Listen and Take Profits In Treasury Bonds Last Week?
  • How To Make Money In Apple, Twitter, Yahoo and GoPro
  • Which Developed Markets Should We Buy: Europe or Japan?
  • Is It Time To Own China? Why?
  • Which Stocks Will Lead the U.S. Stock Market Higher?

12 Charts You Need To Make Money In Gold

February 16, 2016

Precious metals are a sensitive subject in some circles. Discussions about gold or silver tend to bring out more anger and craziness than other assets. As someone who couldn't care less about what we're trading, Gold, Apple, Bonds, Australian Dollars or Go Pro, to me it's just letters and math. I find it kind of funny when people get extra sensitive about a specific asset. Precious metals bring out some of the most hilarious commentary.

Today, I want to break down Gold and Precious Metals from many different angles in order to put it into context from both a structural perspective and a shorter-term tactical outlook.