We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
There are stocks going up and there are stocks that are not going up.
What you're not really seeing is many stocks going down.
That's probably the best way to describe this market.
We've outlined our long positions, particularly those that have been showing relative strength and positive momentum. Those areas are working.
But most stocks are not.
You can see the difference in the Value Line indexes, when we compare them to the S&P500. Think of these more of the "Median" stock:
You can see the same thing in other areas we look for confirmation of risk appetite. Both the Aussie/Yen and the High Beta / Low Volatility ratios are not confirming the new highs in S&Ps:
The Advance / Decline lines for both the NYSE (common stocks only) and the Nasdaq peaked a while ago.
These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Thursday July 6th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
The S&P 500 finished June at its highest level ever. For the first time since August 2020, however, this was a new monthly high that was not confirmed by the equal-weight version of the index. Moreover, it was the first time since Sep 2018 that the equal-weight version of the index was actually down (ever so slightly) for a month in which the S&P 500 made a new high. This is evidence of a market that has lost some of the harmonies that helped sustain strength in recent months.
It takes time to learn the intricacies of a topic.
For those who've spent a good deal of their career working with other asset classes, the lingo that youngsters throw around while discussing their favorite crypto projects can be daunting.
There are dozens of indicators you've likely never seen.
People are sharing charts where you may not even know what's going on.
And there's arguably more noise to deal with in this space, more so than any other group of assets.
But I think we can all take solace in the fact that no one is a complete expert in this stuff.
Once again this month, I’m going to share info on positions that were closed in the month of June. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all in accordance with the plans as laid out.
As we head towards July expiration, we have six open positions remaining with expiring July options.
June 2021 is officially over. And what does that mean? For starters, it means that we have monthly closing prices (you know how much we love those). And what this also means is that 2021 has six months remaining.
Time is funny that way, it can feel like it's going fast and slow at the same time. But we gotta do what we gotta do. So we will gladly look at the monthly charts and keep our long-term views in check while deciphering short-term moves.
This is a recap of what has happened over the past six months, in a nutshell. For more comprehensive insights, watch out for our Monthly conference call next week!
You guys see that massive spike in inflows of Tether into exchanges?
Exchanges just saw their 3rd largest inflow of Tether of all time (and by all time, we mean a few years - this is Crypto we're talking about).
The thought process here is that if people are transferring their Tether into exchanges, they're getting ready to load up on these crypto-assets, driving prices higher.
The last time an inflow of this magnitude took place, Bitcoin nearly doubled in a matter of weeks.
A strange thought occurred to me as I was cracking eggs into a well-seasoned pan over the weekend: cast iron pans and technical analysis have a lot of similarities.
This might sound a little crazy, but the idea is worth pursuing. Bear with me while I give it a shot...
Growing up, my family didn't often use cast iron pans. They had a reputation for being hard to use. On the rare occasions that I did use one, food would burn and stick to the pan. So I was stuck with inferior results and lots of cleanup.
We preferred Teflon-coated cookware. Teflon benefitted from great advertising and the promise of progress. They seemed miraculous at first. But the coating would chip over time and bits of it ended up in the food. Still, the cast iron went unused.
But our problems with cast iron had nothing to do with the material. It was how we were using these pans that caused our issues. We didn't understand how we needed to season a cast iron pan with oil. Also, using too much soap on clean up destroys the finish you worked to build up.
Now I know the more a cast iron pan is properly used, the more...